RI-02 · MODEL v1.14 · 5 INPUTS MEASURED

Seth Magaziner

RI-02 scores 38.3 on the expanded model: AIPAC-supported blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.8 replaces the inferred primary component with direct 2024 contest evidence, moving the score -3.6 to 34.7. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-08-20, moving the score +0.1 to 34.8.

Priority score34.8#2,631 of 5,726

THE MEMBER

Record

Seth Magaziner (born 1983) has served in the U.S. House since 2023-01-03. The retained record shows 3.6 cumulative years of House service, 3.6 in the current uninterrupted stretch, 0 district changes, and 0 material service breaks.

First House service: Jan 3, 2023
District changes: 0
Alignment gap: 46.5
Bioguide record: M001223

THE DISTRICT

RI-02

RI-02 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+6.8. Incumbent cash on hand is $1.6M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $1,588,340 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. The directly linked 2024 Democratic primary gives the incumbent 100.0% of retained contest votes; this changes primary feasibility without making a winner or nomination claim.

2024 presidential margin: D+6.8
Cash on hand: $1,512,712
Receipts / disbursements: $1,382,796 / $747,050
Finance through: Aug 20, 2026
Route: AIPAC-supported blue
Baseline score: 33.3

SCORE ANATOMY

What makes the score

Blue baseline

7.1

District Democratic baseline contributes 7.1 points; the retained 2024 presidential margin is D+6.8.

Primary feasibility

0.0

The retained official 2024 Democratic primary reports 25,157 incumbent votes out of 25,157 contest votes (100.0%). Primary feasibility is the inverse share, 0.0. The candidate identity and CD119 district key are bound; no winner is inferred.

AIPAC support

52.5

Retained FEC AIPAC evidence contributes 52.5 points; tracker labels are context only and are not double counted.

Incumbent alignment gap

46.5

The retained voting trackers produce a 46.5-point alignment gap.

Cash vulnerability

26.0

The FEC candidate summary snapshot (2026-08-20) reports $1,512,712 cash on hand, replacing the $1,588,340 release aggregate. The inverse log scale is 100 at $50,000 or less and 0 at $5 million or more.

HOUSE HISTORY

Recorded service

2023–2025RI-02Completed term

2025–nowRI-02Current at source cutoff

Formula 0.65 × structural baseline + 0.20 × incumbent alignment gap + 0.15 × cash vulnerability; v0.8 replaces inferred primary feasibility with 100 minus the directly linked 2024 incumbent vote share; v0.10 refreshes cash vulnerability from the FEC candidate summary snapshot

Source cutoff Aug 4, 2026 · How the score is built · Source ledger · Factual seat record