NY-04 · MODEL v1.14 · 4 INPUTS MEASURED
NY-04 scores 30.7 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and no available cash-on-hand evidence.
THE MEMBER
Laura Gillen (born 1969) has served in the U.S. House since 2025-01-03. The retained record shows 1.6 cumulative years of House service, 1.6 in the current uninterrupted stretch, 0 district changes, and 0 material service breaks.
G000602THE DISTRICT
NY-04 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+1.3. Incumbent cash on hand is not available (not_reported). Incumbent cash on hand is not reported in the release.
SCORE ANATOMY
District Democratic baseline contributes 0.0 points; the retained 2024 presidential margin is D+1.3.
Current partial feasibility evidence contributes 61.8 points and remains incomplete.
Retained FEC AIPAC evidence contributes 0.0 points; tracker labels are context only and are not double counted.
The retained voting trackers produce a 70.3-point alignment gap.
Not in this score
The published release reports no incumbent cash-on-hand value, so finance is omitted and the available structural/alignment weights are renormalized.
HOUSE HISTORY
Formula available 0.65 structural + 0.20 alignment weights renormalized (finance unavailable)
Source cutoff Aug 4, 2026 · How the score is built · Source ledger · Factual seat record