MO-S1 · MODEL v1.14 · 3 INPUTS MEASURED
MO-S1 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 28.7 with 85% of the component weight available: statewide competitiveness, incumbent cash vulnerability, and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
THE MEMBER
Josh Hawley is the Republican senator in MO Class 1. The retained roster records 7.6 cumulative years of Senate service through the source cutoff; the seat is next contested in 2030.
H001089THE STATE
MO recorded a R+18.4 presidential margin statewide in 2024. The senator reported $855,925 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
SCORE ANATOMY
The statewide 2024 presidential result was R+18.4. A tied state begins at 100 and each Republican margin point subtracts four points.
Not in this score
Not applicable to this Republican-held route; no Democratic-primary value is imputed.
Not in this score
Not used in this route; the retained AIPAC model covers the Democratic House field.
Not in this score
Not used in this route because the retained alignment trackers cover the Democratic caucus.
The FEC candidate summary reports $855,925 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. The inverse log scale is 100 at $50,000 or less and 0 at $5 million or more.
The retained 2024 state-legislative Democratic primaries in this state score 32.0 on a scale where a 40% contested share is 100. This is state-level organizing context, not a seat measure.
SENATE TERM
Formula renormalized(0.45 × competitiveness + 0.20 × cash vulnerability + 0.15 × local context + 0.20 × state contestation) × (0.6 + 0.4 × 0.85)
Source cutoff Aug 4, 2026 · How the score is built · Source ledger · Factual seat record