DE-AL · MODEL v1.14 · 6 INPUTS MEASURED
DE-AL scores 39.3 on the expanded model: AIPAC-supported blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. The active v0.4 model adds exact at-large local context, moving the score +0.2 to 39.5. V0.5 adds the exact at-large House-versus-presidential comparison, moving the score +0.2 to 39.7. V0.8 replaces the inferred primary component with direct 2024 contest evidence, moving the score -1.3 to 38.4. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-08-26, leaving the score unchanged.
THE MEMBER
Sarah McBride (born 1990) has served in the U.S. House since 2025-01-03. The retained record shows 1.6 cumulative years of House service, 1.6 in the current uninterrupted stretch, 0 district changes, and 0 material service breaks.
M001238THE DISTRICT
DE-AL had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+14.7. Incumbent cash on hand is $2.7M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $2,657,928 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. Exact statewide county coverage adds turnout, registration, and demographic context without allocating split counties. The retained 2024 House Democratic candidate share ran +1.23 points versus Harris; this is research-fallback evidence, not an official canvass or winner claim. The directly linked 2024 Democratic primary gives the incumbent 79.9% of retained contest votes; this changes primary feasibility without making a winner or nomination claim.
SCORE ANATOMY
District Democratic baseline contributes 38.9 points; the retained 2024 presidential margin is D+14.7.
The retained official 2024 Democratic primary reports 66,764 incumbent votes out of 83,607 contest votes (79.9%). Primary feasibility is the inverse share, 20.1. The candidate identity and CD119 district key are bound; no winner is inferred.
Retained FEC AIPAC evidence contributes 52.5 points; tracker labels are context only and are not double counted.
The retained voting trackers produce a 34.7-point alignment gap.
The FEC candidate summary snapshot (2026-08-26) reports $2,700,202 cash on hand, replacing the $2,657,928 release aggregate. The inverse log scale is 100 at $50,000 or less and 0 at $5 million or more.
Exact at-large local context is 49.6 with all component weights present. The research-fallback 2024 House Democratic candidate share was 57.86% versus 56.63% for Harris (+1.23 points); this becomes a 56.2 down-ballot component. No winner is inferred.
HOUSE HISTORY
Formula 0.65 × structural baseline + 0.20 × incumbent alignment gap + 0.15 × cash vulnerability; v0.4 adds exact local context inside the structural route; v0.5 fills the down-ballot local-context weight for an exact at-large research-fallback join; v0.8 replaces inferred primary feasibility with 100 minus the directly linked 2024 incumbent vote share; v0.10 refreshes cash vulnerability from the FEC candidate summary snapshot
Source cutoff Aug 4, 2026 · How the score is built · Source ledger · Factual seat record