PRIORITY INDEX · MODEL v1.14 · PUBLISHED Sep 30, 2026 · HOUSE SOURCE CUTOFF Aug 4, 2026
Where the field bends.
430 House seats, 100 Senate seats, 50 governorships, and 5,146 state-legislative seats in 36 states, ordered by how much reason the retained evidence gives to investigate each one. A score is a research priority, not a forecast.
This view opens on seats scored on two or more inputs. 4,444 seats carry a single input and often tie; choose “Any evidence” under Evidence to include them. How the score is built
5,726seats scored1,282with two or more inputs
- Seats in this view
- 1,282
- Score range
- 86.0 – 0.0
- Three or more inputs
- 306
- Republican-held
- 747
Index rank / scoreSeat / incumbentWhat the score is made ofRoute / evidence
#3,45210.7Tie of 95
TN Senate 8Republican · R+67.1 own race · 4.0-year term · next election 2028
General-election competitiveness0.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation40.3
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
TN Senate 8 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 10.7 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+67.1 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,45210.7Tie of 95
TN Senate 9Republican · R+65.8 own race · 4.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation40.3
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
TN Senate 9 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 10.7 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+65.8 in the 2022 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,54710.6Tie of 5
IL-12Republican · R+43.4 · 11.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability40.1
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
IL-12 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 10.6. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 12.3 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +3.6. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
IL-12 recorded a R+43.4 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $789,999 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#3,55210.5Tie of 3
IL-15Republican · R+39.8 · 5.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability39.5
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
IL-15 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 10.5. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 12.2 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +3.6. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
IL-15 recorded a R+39.8 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $810,427 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#3,55210.5Tie of 3
KY-04Republican · R+35.6 · 13.7 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability39.5
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
KY-04 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 10.5. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 12.2 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +3.6. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
KY-04 recorded a R+35.6 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $810,523 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#3,55210.5Tie of 3
IN Senate 11Republican · R+23.3 own race · 4.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness6.8
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation24.5
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
IN Senate 11 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 10.5 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+23.3 in the 2022 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,55510.3Tie of 13
NY-21Republican · R+20.6 · 11.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness17.4
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability0.0
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
NY-21 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 10.3. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 12.0 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +1.1. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
NY-21 recorded a R+20.6 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $8,747,917 cash on hand through 2024-12-31. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#3,55510.3Tie of 13
PA-15Republican · R+38.0 · 17.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability39.0
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
PA-15 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 10.3. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 12.0 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +3.4. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
PA-15 recorded a R+38.0 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $829,752 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#3,55510.3Tie of 13
WY-S2Republican · R+45.4 · 5.6 years in Senate · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability38.9
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
WY-S2 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 10.3 with 65% of the component weight available: statewide competitiveness, incumbent cash vulnerability.
State
WY recorded a R+45.4 presidential margin statewide in 2024. The senator reported $835,049 cash on hand through 2026-07-29.
#3,56810.1Tie of 3
KS-04Republican · R+23.3 · 9.3 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness6.8
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability22.7
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
KS-04 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 10.1. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 11.7 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +2.5. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-15, leaving the score unchanged.
District
KS-04 recorded a R+23.3 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $1,766,575 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#3,56810.1Tie of 3
KY-05Republican · R+63.9 · 45.5 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability37.9
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
KY-05 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 10.1. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 11.7 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +3.4. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
KY-05 recorded a R+63.9 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $874,716 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#3,56810.1Tie of 3
MS-01Republican · R+37.0 · 11.2 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability38.1
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MS-01 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 10.1. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 11.7 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +3.4. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
MS-01 recorded a R+37.0 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $863,665 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#3,5789.9Tie of 2
MO House 14Democratic · D+9.1 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline16.4
Primary feasibility0.0
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO House 14 scores 9.9 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+9.1 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+9.1 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,5789.9Tie of 2
MO House 47Democratic · D+9.1 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline16.4
Primary feasibility0.0
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO House 47 scores 9.9 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+9.1 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+9.1 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,5809.8
TX-36Republican · R+36.8 · 11.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability37.0
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
TX-36 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 9.8. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 11.4 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +3.3. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
TX-36 recorded a R+36.8 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $908,646 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#3,5819.7Tie of 5
MN-07Republican · R+36.5 · 5.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability36.8
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MN-07 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 9.8. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 11.4 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +3.3. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-22, moving the score -0.1 to 9.7.
District
MN-07 recorded a R+36.5 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $902,668 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#3,5819.7Tie of 5
TX-14Republican · R+34.0 · 13.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability36.7
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
TX-14 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 9.7. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 11.3 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +3.3. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
TX-14 recorded a R+34.0 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $921,878 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#3,5869.6Tie of 5
FL-01Republican · R+37.2 · 1.3 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability36.4
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
FL-01 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 10.6. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 12.3 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +3.6. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-29, moving the score -1.0 to 9.6.
District
FL-01 recorded a R+37.2 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $788,386 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#3,5869.6Tie of 5
TX-17Republican · R+29.2 · 27.5 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability36.4
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
TX-17 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 9.6. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 11.2 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +3.2. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
TX-17 recorded a R+29.2 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $933,956 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#3,5919.5Tie of 3
FL-18Republican · R+29.4 · 5.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability35.8
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
FL-18 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 9.5. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 11.1 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +3.1. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-29, leaving the score unchanged.
District
FL-18 recorded a R+29.4 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $945,704 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#3,5919.5Tie of 3
MO-06Republican · R+38.9 · 25.5 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability10.9
State Democratic primary contestation32.0
Republican-held flip3 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO-06 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 10.5. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 85% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 11.2 is scaled by 0.940, moving the score +7.7. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, moving the score -1.0 to 9.5.
District
MO-06 recorded a R+38.9 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $2,413,988 cash on hand through 2024-12-31. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#3,5919.5Tie of 3
MS-03Republican · R+29.2 · 7.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability35.8
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MS-03 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 9.5. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 11.0 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +3.2. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
MS-03 recorded a R+29.2 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $962,515 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#3,5949.4Tie of 6
VA-09Republican · R+44.1 · 15.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability35.5
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
VA-09 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 9.4. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 10.9 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +3.2. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-15, leaving the score unchanged.
District
VA-09 recorded a R+44.1 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $973,867 cash on hand through 2026-07-15. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#3,6009.3Tie of 6
MI-05Republican · R+27.0 · 17.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability35.1
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MI-05 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 9.0. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 10.5 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +3.0. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-15, moving the score +0.3 to 9.3.
District
MI-05 recorded a R+27.0 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $1,037,289 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#3,6009.3Tie of 6
PA-14Republican · R+33.4 · 7.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability35.2
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
PA-14 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 9.3. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 10.8 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +3.1. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
PA-14 recorded a R+33.4 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $990,681 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#3,6069.1Tie of 2
AR-01Republican · R+45.3 · 15.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability34.3
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
AR-01 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 9.1. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 10.6 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +3.1. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
AR-01 recorded a R+45.3 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $1,031,631 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#3,6069.1Tie of 2
NE-03Republican · R+53.8 · 19.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability34.4
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
NE-03 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 9.1. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 10.6 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +3.1. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
NE-03 recorded a R+53.8 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $1,023,354 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#3,6089.0Tie of 4
TN-03Republican · R+35.9 · 15.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability0.7
State Democratic primary contestation40.3
Republican-held flip3 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
TN-03 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 9.0. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 85% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 9.6 is scaled by 0.940, moving the score +8.9. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-17, leaving the score unchanged.
District
TN-03 recorded a R+35.9 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $4,835,525 cash on hand through 2026-07-17. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#3,6128.9Tie of 7
TX-25Republican · R+36.3 · 13.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability33.4
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
TX-25 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 8.9. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 10.3 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +3.0. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
TX-25 recorded a R+36.3 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $1,076,189 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#3,6128.9Tie of 7
MS-S2Republican · R+22.9 · 8.3 years in Senate · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness8.4
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability14.7
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MS-S2 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 8.9 with 65% of the component weight available: statewide competitiveness, incumbent cash vulnerability.
State
MS recorded a R+22.9 presidential margin statewide in 2024. The senator reported $2,535,896 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#3,6128.9Tie of 7
TN-S2Republican · R+29.7 · 5.6 years in Senate · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability0.0
State Democratic primary contestation40.3
Republican-held flip3 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
TN-S2 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 8.9 with 85% of the component weight available: statewide competitiveness, incumbent cash vulnerability, and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
State
TN recorded a R+29.7 presidential margin statewide in 2024. The senator reported $5,234,429 cash on hand through 2026-07-17.
#3,6198.7Tie of 7
TX-04Republican · R+32.6 · 5.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability32.9
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
TX-04 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 8.7. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 10.1 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +3.0. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
TX-04 recorded a R+32.6 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $1,097,026 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#3,6198.7Tie of 7
MO House 92Democratic · D+8.6 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline14.4
Primary feasibility0.0
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO House 92 scores 8.7 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+8.6 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+8.6 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,6198.7Tie of 7
MO Senate 24Democratic · D+8.6 own race · 4.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline14.4
Primary feasibility0.0
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO Senate 24 scores 8.7 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+8.6 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+8.6 in the 2022 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,6268.6Tie of 7
IN Senate 45Republican · R+24.1 own race · 4.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness3.6
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation24.5
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
IN Senate 45 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 8.6 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+24.1 in the 2022 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,6268.6Tie of 7
NC Senate 13Democratic · D+3.3 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline0.0
Primary feasibility33.4
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
NC Senate 13 scores 8.6 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+3.3 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+3.3 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,6338.4Tie of 106
MS-S1Republican · R+22.9 · 18.6 years in Senate · next election 2030
General-election competitiveness8.4
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability13.1
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MS-S1 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 8.4 with 65% of the component weight available: statewide competitiveness, incumbent cash vulnerability.
State
MS recorded a R+22.9 presidential margin statewide in 2024. The senator reported $2,739,159 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#3,6338.4Tie of 106
MO House 1Republican · R+100.0 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation32.0
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO House 1 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 8.4 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+100.0 in the 2024 general election, which was uncontested. That race was uncontested, so the margin is the maximum. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,6338.4Tie of 106
MO House 102Republican · R+29.1 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation32.0
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO House 102 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 8.4 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+29.1 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,6338.4Tie of 106
MO House 108Republican · R+27.0 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation32.0
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO House 108 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 8.4 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+27.0 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,6338.4Tie of 106
MO House 109Republican · R+44.5 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation32.0
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO House 109 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 8.4 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+44.5 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,6338.4Tie of 106
MO House 11Republican · R+100.0 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation32.0
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO House 11 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 8.4 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+100.0 in the 2024 general election, which was uncontested. That race was uncontested, so the margin is the maximum. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,6338.4Tie of 106
MO House 111Republican · R+100.0 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation32.0
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO House 111 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 8.4 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+100.0 in the 2024 general election, which was uncontested. That race was uncontested, so the margin is the maximum. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,6338.4Tie of 106
MO House 112Republican · R+38.6 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation32.0
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO House 112 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 8.4 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+38.6 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,6338.4Tie of 106
MO House 113Republican · R+100.0 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation32.0
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO House 113 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 8.4 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+100.0 in the 2024 general election, which was uncontested. That race was uncontested, so the margin is the maximum. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,6338.4Tie of 106
MO House 115Republican · R+47.8 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation32.0
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO House 115 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 8.4 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+47.8 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,6338.4Tie of 106
MO House 116Republican · R+83.4 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation32.0
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO House 116 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 8.4 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+83.4 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,6338.4Tie of 106
MO House 117Republican · R+51.9 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation32.0
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO House 117 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 8.4 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+51.9 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,6338.4Tie of 106
MO House 118Republican · R+100.0 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation32.0
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO House 118 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 8.4 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+100.0 in the 2024 general election, which was uncontested. That race was uncontested, so the margin is the maximum. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,6338.4Tie of 106
MO House 119Republican · R+43.9 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation32.0
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO House 119 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 8.4 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+43.9 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.