TN-Gov · MODEL v1.14 · 2 INPUTS MEASURED

Bill Lee

TN-Gov enters through the Republican-held flip route at 10.7 with 65% of the component weight available: statewide competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.

Priority score10.7#3,452 of 5,726Tie of 95

THE MEMBER

Record

Bill Lee is the Republican governor of TN. The Open States roster records a term ending 2027-01-16; the office is next contested in 2026.

Term start: Jan 19, 2019
Next election: 2026
Alignment gap: Not in this score
Open States record: ocd-person/d94cf7a2-1ba6-46f2-bdbf-54ace20b8dfc

THE STATE

TN-Gov

TN recorded a R+29.7 presidential margin statewide in 2024. State campaign-finance filings are not retained.

2024 presidential margin: R+29.7
Cash on hand: Not reported
Receipts / disbursements: Not reported / Not reported
Finance through: Not reported
Route: Republican-held flip screen
Baseline score: 0.0

SCORE ANATOMY

What makes the score

General-election competitiveness

0.0

The statewide 2024 presidential result was R+29.7. A tied state begins at 100 and each Republican margin point subtracts four points.

Cash vulnerability

Not in this score

State campaign-finance filings are not retained, so the weight is omitted.

State Democratic primary contestation

40.3

The retained 2024 state-legislative Democratic primaries in this state score 40.3 on a scale where a 40% contested share is 100.

GUBERNATORIAL TERM

Recorded service

2019–nowTN-GovernorCurrent at source cutoff

Formula renormalized(0.45 × competitiveness + 0.20 × cash vulnerability + 0.15 × local context + 0.20 × state contestation) × (0.6 + 0.4 × 0.65)

Source cutoff Aug 4, 2026 · How the score is built · Source ledger