WY-AL · OPEN SEAT · MODEL v1.14 · 2 INPUTS MEASURED
WY-AL is an open seat: the incumbent has filed for the 2026 Senate race. V0.11 scores it on competitiveness and state context without incumbent cash at 12.5 (-6.3 from v0.10).
THE MEMBER
Harriet M. Hageman is the current Republican House member for WY-AL. The retained congressional history records 3.6 cumulative years of House service through the source cutoff.
H001096THE DISTRICT
WY-AL recorded a R+46.2 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $882,963 cash on hand through 2024-12-31. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence. Exact statewide county coverage adds turnout, registration, and demographic context without allocating split counties. The retained 2024 House Democratic candidate share ran -2.86 points versus Harris; this is research-fallback evidence, not an official canvass or winner claim.
SCORE ANATOMY
The retained 2024 presidential result was R+46.2. A tied district begins at 100 and each Republican margin point subtracts four points.
Not in this score
Not applicable to this Republican-held general-election route; no Democratic-primary value is imputed.
Not in this score
Not used in this route because the retained candidate-level AIPAC model covers the Democratic incumbent field.
Not in this score
Not used in this route because the retained alignment trackers cover Democratic incumbents.
Not in this score
Cash vulnerability is omitted: the FEC candidate master records the incumbent as a 2026 Senate candidate (S6WY00209), so this is an open House seat and the departing incumbent's cash vulnerability is not a vulnerability signal. The remaining weights are renormalized.
Exact at-large local context is 59.7 with all component weights present. The research-fallback 2024 House Democratic candidate share was 23.24% versus 26.10% for Harris (-2.86 points); this becomes a 35.7 down-ballot component. No winner is inferred.
Not in this score
No retained state-legislative Democratic primary catalog records uncontested contests for this state, so the component is omitted and the available weight is renormalized.
HOUSE HISTORY
Formula v0.9 Republican-held route: renormalized 0.45 × competitiveness + 0.20 × cash vulnerability + 0.15 × local context + 0.20 × state Democratic primary contestation (80% of component weight available) × 0.920 coverage multiplier; the former flat 0.70 cap is removed; v0.10 refreshes cash vulnerability from the FEC candidate summary snapshot; v0.11 open seat: cash_vulnerability omitted and weights renormalized
Source cutoff Aug 4, 2026 · How the score is built · Source ledger · Factual seat record