PRIORITY INDEX · MODEL v1.14 · PUBLISHED Sep 30, 2026 · HOUSE SOURCE CUTOFF Aug 4, 2026
Where the field bends.
430 House seats, 100 Senate seats, 50 governorships, and 5,146 state-legislative seats in 36 states, ordered by how much reason the retained evidence gives to investigate each one. A score is a research priority, not a forecast.
This view opens on seats scored on two or more inputs. 4,444 seats carry a single input and often tie; choose “Any evidence” under Evidence to include them. How the score is built
5,726seats scored1,282with two or more inputs
- Seats in this view
- 1,282
- Score range
- 86.0 – 0.0
- Three or more inputs
- 306
- Republican-held
- 747
Index rank / scoreSeat / incumbentWhat the score is made ofRoute / evidence
#3,27416.2Tie of 12
IN House 89Democratic · D+11.7 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline26.8
Primary feasibility0.0
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
IN House 89 scores 16.2 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+11.7 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+11.7 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,28616.1
AZ-09Republican · R+31.1 · 15.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability60.9
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
AZ-09 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 16.1. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 18.7 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +5.5. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-01, leaving the score unchanged.
District
AZ-09 recorded a R+31.1 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $303,214 cash on hand through 2026-07-01. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#3,28716.0Tie of 2
IN Senate 32Republican · R+21.0 own race · 4.0-year term · next election 2028
General-election competitiveness16.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation24.5
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
IN Senate 32 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 16.0 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+21.0 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,28716.0Tie of 2
NC Senate 5Democratic · D+10.2 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline20.8
Primary feasibility13.4
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
NC Senate 5 scores 16.0 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+10.2 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+10.2 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,29015.8Tie of 3
MT-S2Republican · R+19.9 · 11.6 years in Senate · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness20.3
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability14.1
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MT-S2 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 15.8 with 65% of the component weight available: statewide competitiveness, incumbent cash vulnerability.
State
MT recorded a R+19.9 presidential margin statewide in 2024. The senator reported $2,614,137 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#3,29315.7Tie of 2
CA-01Republican · R+24.9 · 0.2 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.2
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability58.8
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
CA-01 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 15.7. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 18.2 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +5.3. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
CA-01 recorded a R+24.9 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $332,899 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#3,29315.7Tie of 2
OH-12Republican · R+32.7 · 7.9 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability20.1
State Democratic primary contestation51.0
Republican-held flip3 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
OH-12 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 15.7. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 85% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 16.7 is scaled by 0.940, moving the score +12.2. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
OH-12 recorded a R+32.7 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $1,982,352 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#3,29515.6Tie of 4
FL-19Republican · R+29.2 · 5.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability58.7
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
FL-19 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 6.0. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 7.0 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +2.0. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, moving the score +9.6 to 15.6.
District
FL-19 recorded a R+29.2 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $1,740,010 cash on hand through 2024-12-31. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#3,30915.1Tie of 4
TX-08Republican · R+33.9 · 3.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability57.2
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
TX-08 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 11.3. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 13.1 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +3.8. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, moving the score +3.8 to 15.1.
District
TX-08 recorded a R+33.9 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $700,552 cash on hand through 2024-12-31. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#3,31315.0Tie of 4
MO-07Republican · R+42.6 · 3.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability35.9
State Democratic primary contestation32.0
Republican-held flip3 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO-07 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 15.2. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 85% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 16.2 is scaled by 0.940, moving the score +8.7. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-15, moving the score -0.2 to 15.0.
District
MO-07 recorded a R+42.6 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $908,427 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#3,31714.8Tie of 12
IN-08Republican · R+35.9 · 1.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability42.3
State Democratic primary contestation24.5
Republican-held flip3 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
IN-08 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 14.8. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 85% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 15.7 is scaled by 0.940, moving the score +7.4. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
IN-08 recorded a R+35.9 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $713,500 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#3,31714.8Tie of 12
OH-09Democratic · R+6.7 · 43.5 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline0.0
Primary feasibility3.3
AIPAC support0.0
Incumbent alignment gap64.8
Cash vulnerability7.8
Deep blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
OH-09 scores 14.8 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
OH-09 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+-6.7. Incumbent cash on hand is $3.5M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $3,491,668 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#3,31714.8Tie of 12
AZ-S3Democratic · R+5.5 · 5.7 years in Senate · next election 2028
Blue baseline0.0
Primary feasibilityNot in this score
Incumbent alignment gap74.1
Cash vulnerability0.0
Democratic incumbent3 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
AZ-S3 scores 14.8 on the Democratic incumbent route with 100% of the component weight available: a R+5.5 statewide baseline, tracker alignment, and reported cash on hand. Senate primary feasibility is not measured.
State
AZ recorded a R+5.5 presidential margin statewide in 2024. The senator reported $24,287,638 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#3,33114.5
FL-08Republican · R+22.3 · 1.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness10.6
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability31.0
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
FL-08 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 14.6. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 17.0 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +3.5. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-29, moving the score -0.1 to 14.5.
District
FL-08 recorded a R+22.3 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $1,182,065 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#3,33214.4Tie of 12
WI-05Republican · R+22.1 · 5.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness11.4
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability28.8
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
WI-05 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 14.4. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 16.8 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +3.3. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-22, leaving the score unchanged.
District
WI-05 recorded a R+22.1 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $1,314,848 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#3,33214.4Tie of 12
GA-S2Democratic · R+2.2 · 5.5 years in Senate · next election 2026
Blue baseline0.0
Primary feasibilityNot in this score
Incumbent alignment gap71.8
Cash vulnerability0.0
Democratic incumbent3 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
GA-S2 scores 14.4 on the Democratic incumbent route with 100% of the component weight available: a R+2.2 statewide baseline, tracker alignment, and reported cash on hand. Senate primary feasibility is not measured.
State
GA recorded a R+2.2 presidential margin statewide in 2024. The senator reported $42,587,451 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#3,33214.4Tie of 12
IN Senate 4Democratic · D+4.6 own race · 4.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline0.0
Primary feasibility55.9
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
IN Senate 4 scores 14.4 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+4.6 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+4.6 in the 2022 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,34414.2Tie of 2
HI House 7Democratic · D+10.9 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline23.6
Primary feasibility0.0
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
HI House 7 scores 14.2 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+10.9 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+10.9 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,34614.1Tie of 4
ID-02Republican · R+26.7 · 27.5 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability53.3
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
ID-02 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 14.1. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 16.4 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +4.8. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
ID-02 recorded a R+26.7 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $429,359 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#3,34614.1Tie of 4
SD-ALRepublican · R+29.2 · 7.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability27.7
Local context44.7
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip3 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
SD-AL enters through the Republican-held flip route at 7.7. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 80% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 8.4 is scaled by 0.920, moving the score +1.4. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, moving the score +6.4 to 14.1.
District
SD-AL recorded a R+29.2 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $5,245,125 cash on hand through 2024-12-31. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence. Exact statewide county coverage adds turnout, registration, and demographic context without allocating split counties. The retained 2024 House Democratic candidate share ran -6.28 points versus Harris after normalizing obsolete Shannon County FIPS 46113 to current Oglala Lakota County 46102; this remains research-fallback election evidence, not an official canvass or winner claim.
#3,35513.9
IN-02Republican · R+26.5 · 3.7 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability38.3
State Democratic primary contestation24.5
Republican-held flip3 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
IN-02 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 13.9. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 85% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 14.8 is scaled by 0.940, moving the score +7.2. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
IN-02 recorded a R+26.5 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $855,313 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#3,35613.8Tie of 5
CA-20Republican · R+30.3 · 2.2 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability52.1
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
CA-20 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 13.8. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 16.0 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +4.7. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
CA-20 recorded a R+30.3 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $453,750 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#3,35613.8Tie of 5
VA-06Republican · R+23.9 · 7.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness4.5
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability42.3
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
VA-06 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 13.4. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 15.6 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +3.9. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-15, moving the score +0.4 to 13.8.
District
VA-06 recorded a R+23.9 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $769,639 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#3,35613.8Tie of 5
NM-S2Democratic · D+6.0 · 5.6 years in Senate · next election 2026
Blue baseline4.0
Primary feasibilityNot in this score
Incumbent alignment gap53.7
Cash vulnerability2.8
Democratic incumbent3 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
NM-S2 scores 13.8 on the Democratic incumbent route with 100% of the component weight available: a D+6.0 statewide baseline, tracker alignment, and reported cash on hand. Senate primary feasibility is not measured.
State
NM recorded a D+6.0 presidential margin statewide in 2024. The senator reported $4,396,754 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#3,35613.8Tie of 5
GA House 50Democratic · D+10.7 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline22.8
Primary feasibility0.0
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
GA House 50 scores 13.8 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+10.7 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+10.7 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,35613.8Tie of 5
IN Senate 26Republican · R+21.9 own race · 4.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness12.4
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation24.5
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
IN Senate 26 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 13.8 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+21.9 in the 2022 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,36513.6
NY-23Republican · R+21.0 · 3.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness16.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability15.2
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
NY-23 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 13.6. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 15.8 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +2.5. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
NY-23 recorded a R+21.0 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $2,477,498 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#3,36613.5
NJ-S2Democratic · D+5.9 · 12.8 years in Senate · next election 2026
Blue baseline3.6
Primary feasibilityNot in this score
Incumbent alignment gap55.9
Cash vulnerability0.0
Democratic incumbent3 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
NJ-S2 scores 13.5 on the Democratic incumbent route with 100% of the component weight available: a D+5.9 statewide baseline, tracker alignment, and reported cash on hand. Senate primary feasibility is not measured.
State
NJ recorded a D+5.9 presidential margin statewide in 2024. The senator reported $23,060,940 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#3,37213.3Tie of 3
MN-06Republican · R+19.7 · 11.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness21.3
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability2.3
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MN-06 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 13.2. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 15.4 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +1.7. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-22, moving the score +0.1 to 13.3.
District
MN-06 recorded a R+19.7 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $4,535,592 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#3,37213.3Tie of 3
NJ-04Republican · R+30.1 · 45.5 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability50.5
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
NJ-04 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 13.3. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 15.5 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +4.5. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
NJ-04 recorded a R+30.1 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $488,316 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#3,37213.3Tie of 3
TN-01Republican · R+57.8 · 5.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability20.1
State Democratic primary contestation40.3
Republican-held flip3 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
TN-01 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 13.3. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 85% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 14.2 is scaled by 0.940, moving the score +9.8. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-17, leaving the score unchanged.
District
TN-01 recorded a R+57.8 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $2,002,792 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#3,37912.9Tie of 2
OK-03Republican · R+45.5 · 33.2 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability48.6
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
OK-03 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 12.9. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 15.0 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +4.4. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
OK-03 recorded a R+45.5 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $532,512 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#3,37912.9Tie of 2
PA-16Republican · R+22.8 · 15.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness8.9
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability28.8
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
PA-16 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 12.9. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 15.0 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +3.2. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
PA-16 recorded a R+22.8 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $1,329,347 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#3,38512.7Tie of 4
MI-S1Democratic · R+1.4 · 1.6 years in Senate · next election 2030
Blue baseline0.0
Primary feasibilityNot in this score
Incumbent alignment gap53.2
Cash vulnerability13.7
Democratic incumbent3 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MI-S1 scores 12.7 on the Democratic incumbent route with 100% of the component weight available: a R+1.4 statewide baseline, tracker alignment, and reported cash on hand. Senate primary feasibility is not measured.
State
MI recorded a R+1.4 presidential margin statewide in 2024. The senator reported $2,662,580 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#3,38912.6Tie of 3
FL-12Republican · R+34.6 · 19.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability47.8
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
FL-12 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 12.3. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 14.3 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +4.2. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-29, moving the score +0.3 to 12.6.
District
FL-12 recorded a R+34.6 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $586,860 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#3,38912.6Tie of 3
TX-12Republican · R+22.6 · 1.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness9.6
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability26.0
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
TX-12 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 12.6. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 14.6 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +3.0. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
TX-12 recorded a R+22.6 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $1,508,861 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#3,38912.6Tie of 3
IN House 34Democratic · D+10.2 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline20.8
Primary feasibility0.0
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
IN House 34 scores 12.6 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+10.2 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+10.2 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,39212.5Tie of 5
WY-AL · open seatRepublican · R+46.2 · 3.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local context59.7
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
WY-AL is an open seat: the incumbent has filed for the 2026 Senate race. V0.11 scores it on competitiveness and state context without incumbent cash at 12.5 (-6.3 from v0.10).
District
WY-AL recorded a R+46.2 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $882,963 cash on hand through 2024-12-31. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence. Exact statewide county coverage adds turnout, registration, and demographic context without allocating split counties. The retained 2024 House Democratic candidate share ran -2.86 points versus Harris; this is research-fallback evidence, not an official canvass or winner claim.
#3,39712.4Tie of 6
GA House 149Democratic · D+8.0 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline12.0
Primary feasibility20.0
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
GA House 149 scores 12.4 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+8.0 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+8.0 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,40312.3Tie of 3
IN-09Republican · R+29.9 · 3.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability31.3
State Democratic primary contestation24.5
Republican-held flip3 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
IN-09 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 12.3. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 85% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 13.1 is scaled by 0.940, moving the score +6.8. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
IN-09 recorded a R+29.9 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $1,183,066 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#3,40312.3Tie of 3
IN House 12Democratic · D+10.1 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline20.4
Primary feasibility0.0
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
IN House 12 scores 12.3 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+10.1 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+10.1 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,40312.3Tie of 3
TN House 26Republican · R+24.3 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness2.8
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation40.3
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
TN House 26 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 12.3 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+24.3 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,40612.2Tie of 6
LA-03Republican · R+44.8 · 9.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability46.2
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
LA-03 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 12.1. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 14.1 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +4.1. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-18, moving the score +0.1 to 12.2.
District
LA-03 recorded a R+44.8 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $603,233 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#3,41212.1
WV-01Republican · R+44.4 · 7.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability45.9
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
WV-01 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 12.1. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 14.1 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +4.1. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
WV-01 recorded a R+44.4 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $604,379 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#3,41312.0Tie of 5
NY-24Republican · R+23.1 · 7.5 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness7.6
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability28.1
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
NY-24 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 12.0. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 13.9 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +3.1. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
NY-24 recorded a R+23.1 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $1,373,087 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#3,41312.0Tie of 5
NJ-S1Democratic · D+5.9 · 1.7 years in Senate · next election 2030
Blue baseline3.6
Primary feasibilityNot in this score
Incumbent alignment gap25.0
Cash vulnerability31.1
Democratic incumbent3 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
NJ-S1 scores 12.0 on the Democratic incumbent route with 100% of the component weight available: a D+5.9 statewide baseline, tracker alignment, and reported cash on hand. Senate primary feasibility is not measured.
State
NJ recorded a D+5.9 presidential margin statewide in 2024. The senator reported $1,192,514 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#3,41312.0Tie of 5
MO House 135Democratic · D+10.0 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline20.0
Primary feasibility0.0
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO House 135 scores 12.0 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+10.0 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+10.0 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,42011.7Tie of 4
MT-02Republican · R+29.5 · 1.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability44.3
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MT-02 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 11.7. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 13.6 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +3.9. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
MT-02 recorded a R+29.5 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $650,464 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#3,42411.6
GA-S3Democratic · R+2.2 · 5.5 years in Senate · next election 2028
Blue baseline0.0
Primary feasibilityNot in this score
Incumbent alignment gap54.6
Cash vulnerability4.3
Democratic incumbent3 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
GA-S3 scores 11.6 on the Democratic incumbent route with 100% of the component weight available: a R+2.2 statewide baseline, tracker alignment, and reported cash on hand. Senate primary feasibility is not measured.
State
GA recorded a R+2.2 presidential margin statewide in 2024. The senator reported $4,101,705 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#3,42511.5Tie of 3
ND-S3Republican · R+36.5 · 15.6 years in Senate · next election 2028
General-election competitiveness0.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability43.5
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
ND-S3 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 11.5 with 65% of the component weight available: statewide competitiveness, incumbent cash vulnerability.
State
ND recorded a R+36.5 presidential margin statewide in 2024. The senator reported $674,824 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.