PRIORITY INDEX · MODEL v1.14 · PUBLISHED Sep 30, 2026 · HOUSE SOURCE CUTOFF Aug 4, 2026
Where the field bends.
430 House seats, 100 Senate seats, 50 governorships, and 5,146 state-legislative seats in 36 states, ordered by how much reason the retained evidence gives to investigate each one. A score is a research priority, not a forecast.
This view opens on seats scored on two or more inputs. 4,444 seats carry a single input and often tie; choose “Any evidence” under Evidence to include them. How the score is built
5,726seats scored1,282with two or more inputs
- Seats in this view
- 1,282
- Score range
- 86.0 – 0.0
- Three or more inputs
- 306
- Republican-held
- 747
Index rank / scoreSeat / incumbentWhat the score is made ofRoute / evidence
#3,15420.8Tie of 2
MO House 88Republican · R+19.8 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness20.8
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation32.0
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO House 88 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 20.8 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+19.8 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,15620.7Tie of 2
MI-01Republican · R+21.2 · 9.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness15.2
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability44.0
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MI-01 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 19.3. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 22.4 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +4.6. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-15, moving the score +1.4 to 20.7.
District
MI-01 recorded a R+21.2 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $849,951 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#3,15620.7Tie of 2
TN-S1Republican · R+29.7 · 7.6 years in Senate · next election 2030
General-election competitiveness0.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability53.1
State Democratic primary contestation40.3
Republican-held flip3 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
TN-S1 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 20.7 with 85% of the component weight available: statewide competitiveness, incumbent cash vulnerability, and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
State
TN recorded a R+29.7 presidential margin statewide in 2024. The senator reported $433,701 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#3,15820.6Tie of 6
IL-14Democratic · D+5.2 · 7.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline0.7
Primary feasibility35.9
AIPAC support0.0
Incumbent alignment gap41.6
Cash vulnerability32.7
Deep blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
IL-14 scores 20.6 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
IL-14 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+5.2. Incumbent cash on hand is $1.1M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $1,106,564 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#3,16920.2
TN House 34Republican · R+21.0 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness16.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation40.3
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
TN House 34 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 20.2 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+21.0 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,17020.1
NJ-09Democratic · R+1.1 · 1.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline0.0
Primary feasibility39.1
AIPAC support0.0
Incumbent alignment gap45.8
Cash vulnerability22.3
Deep blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
NJ-09 scores 20.1 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
NJ-09 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+-1.1. Incumbent cash on hand is $1.8M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $1,793,359 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#3,17120.0Tie of 9
TN-04Republican · R+43.6 · 15.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability50.2
State Democratic primary contestation40.3
Republican-held flip3 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
TN-04 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 19.7. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 85% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 21.0 is scaled by 0.940, moving the score +11.1. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-17, moving the score +0.3 to 20.0.
District
TN-04 recorded a R+43.6 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $524,597 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#3,18019.8
NH-S3Democratic · D+2.8 · 9.6 years in Senate · next election 2028
Blue baseline0.0
Primary feasibilityNot in this score
Incumbent alignment gap81.9
Cash vulnerability22.9
Democratic incumbent3 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
NH-S3 scores 19.8 on the Democratic incumbent route with 100% of the component weight available: a D+2.8 statewide baseline, tracker alignment, and reported cash on hand. Senate primary feasibility is not measured.
State
NH recorded a D+2.8 presidential margin statewide in 2024. The senator reported $1,742,250 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#3,18119.7Tie of 9
IN-S1Republican · R+19.0 · 1.6 years in Senate · next election 2030
General-election competitiveness24.2
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability10.2
State Democratic primary contestation24.5
Republican-held flip3 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
IN-S1 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 19.7 with 85% of the component weight available: statewide competitiveness, incumbent cash vulnerability, and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
State
IN recorded a R+19.0 presidential margin statewide in 2024. The senator reported $3,120,254 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#3,18119.7Tie of 9
UT-S1Republican · R+21.6 · 1.6 years in Senate · next election 2030
General-election competitiveness13.7
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability43.5
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
UT-S1 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 19.7 with 65% of the component weight available: statewide competitiveness, incumbent cash vulnerability.
State
UT recorded a R+21.6 presidential margin statewide in 2024. The senator reported $674,751 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#3,19019.6Tie of 4
NH-S2Democratic · D+2.8 · 17.6 years in Senate · next election 2026
Blue baseline0.0
Primary feasibilityNot in this score
Incumbent alignment gap69.8
Cash vulnerability37.9
Democratic incumbent3 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
NH-S2 scores 19.6 on the Democratic incumbent route with 100% of the component weight available: a D+2.8 statewide baseline, tracker alignment, and reported cash on hand. Senate primary feasibility is not measured.
State
NH recorded a D+2.8 presidential margin statewide in 2024. The senator reported $871,923 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#3,19419.5Tie of 2
NC-05Republican · R+17.8 · 21.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness28.9
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability8.6
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
NC-05 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 19.5. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 22.7 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +2.8. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
NC-05 recorded a R+17.8 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $3,369,069 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#3,19419.5Tie of 2
VA-S2Democratic · D+5.8 · 17.6 years in Senate · next election 2026
Blue baseline3.1
Primary feasibilityNot in this score
Incumbent alignment gap87.5
Cash vulnerability0.0
Democratic incumbent3 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
VA-S2 scores 19.5 on the Democratic incumbent route with 100% of the component weight available: a D+5.8 statewide baseline, tracker alignment, and reported cash on hand. Senate primary feasibility is not measured.
State
VA recorded a D+5.8 presidential margin statewide in 2024. The senator reported $16,114,725 cash on hand through 2026-07-15.
#3,19619.4Tie of 2
PA-09Republican · R+37.9 · 7.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability73.3
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
PA-09 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 19.4. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 22.6 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +6.6. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
PA-09 recorded a R+37.9 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $170,733 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#3,19619.4Tie of 2
NV-S3Democratic · R+3.1 · 9.6 years in Senate · next election 2028
Blue baseline0.0
Primary feasibilityNot in this score
Incumbent alignment gap90.5
Cash vulnerability8.6
Democratic incumbent3 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
NV-S3 scores 19.4 on the Democratic incumbent route with 100% of the component weight available: a R+3.1 statewide baseline, tracker alignment, and reported cash on hand. Senate primary feasibility is not measured.
State
NV recorded a R+3.1 presidential margin statewide in 2024. The senator reported $3,357,244 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#3,19819.3Tie of 6
FL-03Republican · R+21.1 · 5.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness15.5
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability37.8
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
FL-03 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 19.3. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 22.4 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +4.5. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-29, leaving the score unchanged.
District
FL-03 recorded a R+21.1 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $871,927 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#3,20419.2Tie of 2
PA-11Republican · R+21.4 · 9.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness14.6
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability39.5
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
PA-11 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 19.2. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 22.3 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +4.6. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
PA-11 recorded a R+21.4 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $810,787 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#3,20419.2Tie of 2
UT-S3Republican · R+21.6 · 15.6 years in Senate · next election 2028
General-election competitiveness13.7
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability41.5
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
UT-S3 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 19.2 with 65% of the component weight available: statewide competitiveness, incumbent cash vulnerability.
State
UT recorded a R+21.6 presidential margin statewide in 2024. The senator reported $740,995 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#3,20619.1
MN-S2Democratic · D+4.2 · 8.6 years in Senate · next election 2026
Blue baseline0.0
Primary feasibilityNot in this score
Incumbent alignment gap43.3
Cash vulnerability69.8
Democratic incumbent3 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MN-S2 scores 19.1 on the Democratic incumbent route with 100% of the component weight available: a D+4.2 statewide baseline, tracker alignment, and reported cash on hand. Senate primary feasibility is not measured.
State
MN recorded a D+4.2 presidential margin statewide in 2024. The senator reported $200,915 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#3,20918.9
OH-05Republican · R+29.3 · 18.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability34.5
State Democratic primary contestation51.0
Republican-held flip3 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
OH-05 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 18.8. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 85% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 20.0 is scaled by 0.940, moving the score +12.9. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, moving the score +0.1 to 18.9.
District
OH-05 recorded a R+29.3 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $1,040,964 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#3,21018.8
IN Senate 20Republican · R+19.8 own race · 4.0-year term · next election 2028
General-election competitiveness20.8
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation24.5
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
IN Senate 20 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 18.8 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+19.8 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,21118.7Tie of 3
ND-ALRepublican · R+36.8 · 1.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability33.8
Local context63.3
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip3 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
ND-AL enters through the Republican-held flip route at 18.7. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 80% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 20.3 is scaled by 0.920, moving the score +5.1. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
ND-AL recorded a R+36.8 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $1,055,571 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence. The retained 2024 House Democratic candidate share ran -0.41 points versus Harris; ballots/CVAP and demographics complete the 70% local-evidence threshold, while registration remains missing.
#3,21418.6Tie of 5
CA-47Democratic · D+4.2 · 1.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline0.0
Primary feasibility38.6
AIPAC support0.0
Incumbent alignment gap39.6
Cash vulnerability21.1
Deep blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
CA-47 scores 18.6 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
CA-47 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+4.2. Incumbent cash on hand is $1.9M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $1,889,360 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#3,21418.6Tie of 5
WV-S1Republican · R+41.9 · 1.6 years in Senate · next election 2030
General-election competitiveness0.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability70.3
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
WV-S1 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 18.6 with 65% of the component weight available: statewide competitiveness, incumbent cash vulnerability.
State
WV recorded a R+41.9 presidential margin statewide in 2024. The senator reported $196,361 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#3,21918.5Tie of 2
MI-08Democratic · R+2.0 · 1.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline0.0
Primary feasibility31.3
AIPAC support0.0
Incumbent alignment gap59.5
Cash vulnerability3.5
Deep blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MI-08 scores 18.6 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-15, moving the score -0.1 to 18.5.
District
MI-08 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+-2.0. Incumbent cash on hand is $4.2M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $4,213,977 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#3,21918.5Tie of 2
TN House 60Democratic · D+7.6 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline10.4
Primary feasibility47.4
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
TN House 60 scores 18.5 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+7.6 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+7.6 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,22118.4Tie of 4
MO-03Republican · R+26.7 · 1.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability51.3
State Democratic primary contestation32.0
Republican-held flip3 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO-03 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 18.3. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 85% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 19.5 is scaled by 0.940, moving the score +9.4. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-15, moving the score +0.1 to 18.4.
District
MO-03 recorded a R+26.7 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $485,084 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#3,22918.1Tie of 2
TN Senate 22Republican · R+21.9 own race · 4.0-year term · next election 2028
General-election competitiveness12.4
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation40.3
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
TN Senate 22 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 18.1 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+21.9 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,23118.0Tie of 2
SC-03Republican · R+43.1 · 1.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability68.0
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
SC-03 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 18.0. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 20.9 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +6.1. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
SC-03 recorded a R+43.1 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $218,741 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#3,23118.0Tie of 2
MO House 107Republican · R+21.0 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness16.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation32.0
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO House 107 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 18.0 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+21.0 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,23317.7
IN House 91Republican · R+20.3 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness18.8
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation24.5
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
IN House 91 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 17.7 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+20.3 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,23417.5Tie of 7
IN-S3Republican · R+19.0 · 9.6 years in Senate · next election 2028
General-election competitiveness24.2
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability0.0
State Democratic primary contestation24.5
Republican-held flip3 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
IN-S3 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 17.5 with 85% of the component weight available: statewide competitiveness, incumbent cash vulnerability, and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
State
IN recorded a R+19.0 presidential margin statewide in 2024. The senator reported $7,205,566 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#3,23417.5Tie of 7
MO Senate 1Democratic · D+12.3 own race · 4.0-year term · next election 2028
Blue baseline29.2
Primary feasibility0.0
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO Senate 1 scores 17.5 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+12.3 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+12.3 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,24117.4Tie of 2
ID-01Republican · R+45.1 · 7.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability65.5
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
ID-01 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 17.4. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 20.2 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +5.9. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
ID-01 recorded a R+45.1 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $244,700 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#3,24117.4Tie of 2
UT-01Republican · R+20.0 · 5.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness19.8
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability21.2
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
UT-01 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 18.6. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 21.6 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +3.7. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, moving the score -1.2 to 17.4.
District
UT-01 recorded a R+20.0 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $1,534,023 cash on hand through 2024-12-31. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#3,24317.3
VA-07Democratic · D+2.9 · 1.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline0.0
Primary feasibility29.7
AIPAC support0.0
Incumbent alignment gap57.6
Cash vulnerability0.0
Deep blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
VA-07 scores 17.3 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-15, leaving the score unchanged.
District
VA-07 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+2.9. Incumbent cash on hand is $6.7M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $6,661,974 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#3,24417.2Tie of 6
DE Senate 6Democratic · D+8.7 own race · 4.0-year term · next election 2028
Blue baseline14.8
Primary feasibility32.1
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
DE Senate 6 scores 17.2 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+8.7 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+8.7 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,25017.0Tie of 3
CA-45Democratic · D+1.5 · 1.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline0.0
Primary feasibility33.6
AIPAC support0.0
Incumbent alignment gap45.3
Cash vulnerability9.3
Deep blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
CA-45 scores 17.0 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
CA-45 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+1.5. Incumbent cash on hand is $3.3M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $3,257,398 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#3,25017.0Tie of 3
MN-S1Democratic · D+4.2 · 19.6 years in Senate · next election 2030
Blue baseline0.0
Primary feasibilityNot in this score
Incumbent alignment gap61.9
Cash vulnerability31.0
Democratic incumbent3 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MN-S1 scores 17.0 on the Democratic incumbent route with 100% of the component weight available: a D+4.2 statewide baseline, tracker alignment, and reported cash on hand. Senate primary feasibility is not measured.
State
MN recorded a D+4.2 presidential margin statewide in 2024. The senator reported $1,201,701 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#3,25017.0Tie of 3
SC-S3Republican · R+17.9 · 13.6 years in Senate · next election 2028
General-election competitiveness28.4
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability0.6
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
SC-S3 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 17.0 with 65% of the component weight available: statewide competitiveness, incumbent cash vulnerability.
State
SC recorded a R+17.9 presidential margin statewide in 2024. The senator reported $4,871,210 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#3,25316.9Tie of 7
AL-06Republican · R+38.5 · 11.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability64.1
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
AL-06 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 17.0. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 19.8 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +5.7. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-22, moving the score -0.1 to 16.9.
District
AL-06 recorded a R+38.5 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $257,661 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#3,25316.9Tie of 7
DE Senate 14Democratic · D+3.7 own race · 4.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline0.0
Primary feasibility65.6
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
DE Senate 14 scores 16.9 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+3.7 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+3.7 in the 2022 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,25316.9Tie of 7
TN Senate 10Republican · R+22.4 own race · 4.0-year term · next election 2028
General-election competitiveness10.4
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation40.3
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
TN Senate 10 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 16.9 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+22.4 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,26016.8Tie of 5
TN-02Republican · R+33.9 · 7.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability35.7
State Democratic primary contestation40.3
Republican-held flip3 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
TN-02 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 16.4. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 85% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 17.4 is scaled by 0.940, moving the score +10.5. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-17, moving the score +0.4 to 16.8.
District
TN-02 recorded a R+33.9 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $1,052,623 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#3,26016.8Tie of 5
TX-27Republican · R+29.7 · 8.1 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability63.3
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
TX-27 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 16.8. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 19.5 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +5.7. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
TX-27 recorded a R+29.7 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $271,133 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#3,26516.6
AZ-S1Democratic · R+5.5 · 1.6 years in Senate · next election 2030
Blue baseline0.0
Primary feasibilityNot in this score
Incumbent alignment gap68.9
Cash vulnerability19.0
Democratic incumbent3 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
AZ-S1 scores 16.6 on the Democratic incumbent route with 100% of the component weight available: a R+5.5 statewide baseline, tracker alignment, and reported cash on hand. Senate primary feasibility is not measured.
State
AZ recorded a R+5.5 presidential margin statewide in 2024. The senator reported $2,081,171 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#3,27216.3Tie of 2
MI-S2Democratic · R+1.4 · 11.6 years in Senate · next election 2026
Blue baseline0.0
Primary feasibilityNot in this score
Incumbent alignment gap81.3
Cash vulnerability0.0
Democratic incumbent3 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MI-S2 scores 16.3 on the Democratic incumbent route with 100% of the component weight available: a R+1.4 statewide baseline, tracker alignment, and reported cash on hand. Senate primary feasibility is not measured.
State
MI recorded a R+1.4 presidential margin statewide in 2024. The senator reported $6,546,332 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#3,27216.3Tie of 2
VA-S1Democratic · D+5.8 · 13.6 years in Senate · next election 2030
Blue baseline3.1
Primary feasibilityNot in this score
Incumbent alignment gap58.0
Cash vulnerability18.2
Democratic incumbent3 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
VA-S1 scores 16.3 on the Democratic incumbent route with 100% of the component weight available: a D+5.8 statewide baseline, tracker alignment, and reported cash on hand. Senate primary feasibility is not measured.
State
VA recorded a D+5.8 presidential margin statewide in 2024. The senator reported $2,165,456 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#3,27416.2Tie of 12
MO-04Republican · R+42.3 · 3.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability41.3
State Democratic primary contestation32.0
Republican-held flip3 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO-04 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 16.0. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 85% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 17.0 is scaled by 0.940, moving the score +8.9. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-15, moving the score +0.2 to 16.2.
District
MO-04 recorded a R+42.3 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $779,509 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#3,27416.2Tie of 12
WI-S1Democratic · R+0.9 · 13.6 years in Senate · next election 2030
Blue baseline0.0
Primary feasibilityNot in this score
Incumbent alignment gap47.9
Cash vulnerability44.4
Democratic incumbent3 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
WI-S1 scores 16.2 on the Democratic incumbent route with 100% of the component weight available: a R+0.9 statewide baseline, tracker alignment, and reported cash on hand. Senate primary feasibility is not measured.
State
WI recorded a R+0.9 presidential margin statewide in 2024. The senator reported $647,880 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.