CA-45 · MODEL v1.14 · 5 INPUTS MEASURED
CA-45 scores 17.0 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
THE MEMBER
Derek Tran (born 1980) has served in the U.S. House since 2025-01-03. The retained record shows 1.6 cumulative years of House service, 1.6 in the current uninterrupted stretch, 0 district changes, and 0 material service breaks.
T000491THE DISTRICT
CA-45 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+1.5. Incumbent cash on hand is $3.3M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $3,257,398 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
SCORE ANATOMY
District Democratic baseline contributes 0.0 points; the retained 2024 presidential margin is D+1.5.
Current partial feasibility evidence contributes 33.6 points and remains incomplete.
Retained FEC AIPAC evidence contributes 0.0 points; tracker labels are context only and are not double counted.
The retained voting trackers produce a 45.3-point alignment gap.
The FEC candidate summary snapshot (2026-06-30) reports $3,257,398 cash on hand, replacing the $3,257,398 release aggregate. The inverse log scale is 100 at $50,000 or less and 0 at $5 million or more.
HOUSE HISTORY
Formula 0.65 × structural baseline + 0.20 × incumbent alignment gap + 0.15 × cash vulnerability; v0.10 refreshes cash vulnerability from the FEC candidate summary snapshot
Source cutoff Aug 4, 2026 · How the score is built · Source ledger · Factual seat record