PRIORITY INDEX · MODEL v1.14 · PUBLISHED Sep 30, 2026 · HOUSE SOURCE CUTOFF Aug 4, 2026
Where the field bends.
430 House seats, 100 Senate seats, 50 governorships, and 5,146 state-legislative seats in 36 states, ordered by how much reason the retained evidence gives to investigate each one. A score is a research priority, not a forecast.
This view opens on seats scored on two or more inputs. 4,444 seats carry a single input and often tie; choose “Any evidence” under Evidence to include them. How the score is built
5,726seats scored1,282with two or more inputs
- Seats in this view
- 1,282
- Score range
- 86.0 – 0.0
- Three or more inputs
- 306
- Republican-held
- 747
Index rank / scoreSeat / incumbentWhat the score is made ofRoute / evidence
#3,9313.8Tie of 6
OK-04Republican · R+33.2 · 23.5 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability14.2
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
OK-04 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 3.8. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 4.4 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +1.3. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
OK-04 recorded a R+33.2 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $2,599,733 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#3,9403.6
GA House 150Democratic · D+6.5 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline6.0
Primary feasibility0.0
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
GA House 150 scores 3.6 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+6.5 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+6.5 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,9413.5
KS-01Republican · R+31.3 · 5.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability13.3
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
KS-01 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 3.5. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 4.1 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +1.2. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-15, leaving the score unchanged.
District
KS-01 recorded a R+31.3 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $2,721,165 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#3,9423.4Tie of 11
OK-S3Republican · R+34.3 · 11.6 years in Senate · next election 2028
General-election competitiveness0.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability12.8
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
OK-S3 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 3.4 with 65% of the component weight available: statewide competitiveness, incumbent cash vulnerability.
State
OK recorded a R+34.3 presidential margin statewide in 2024. The senator reported $2,773,393 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#3,9423.4Tie of 11
SD-S2Republican · R+29.2 · 11.6 years in Senate · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability13.1
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
SD-S2 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 3.4 with 65% of the component weight available: statewide competitiveness, incumbent cash vulnerability.
State
SD recorded a R+29.2 presidential margin statewide in 2024. The senator reported $2,736,664 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#3,9533.2
TX-11Republican · R+45.5 · 5.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability12.0
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
TX-11 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 3.2. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 3.7 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +1.1. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
TX-11 recorded a R+45.5 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $2,881,724 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#3,9622.9
ID-S3Republican · R+36.0 · 27.6 years in Senate · next election 2028
General-election competitiveness0.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability11.2
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
ID-S3 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 2.9 with 65% of the component weight available: statewide competitiveness, incumbent cash vulnerability.
State
ID recorded a R+36.0 presidential margin statewide in 2024. The senator reported $2,989,964 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#3,9632.8Tie of 8
KY-01Republican · R+47.3 · 9.7 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability10.8
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
KY-01 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 2.8. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 3.3 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +0.9. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
KY-01 recorded a R+47.3 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $3,041,112 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#3,9812.0
ID-S2Republican · R+36.0 · 17.6 years in Senate · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability7.5
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
ID-S2 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 2.0 with 65% of the component weight available: statewide competitiveness, incumbent cash vulnerability.
State
ID recorded a R+36.0 presidential margin statewide in 2024. The senator reported $3,535,956 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#3,9881.6Tie of 4
PA-13Republican · R+45.5 · 7.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability6.2
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
PA-13 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 1.6. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 1.9 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +0.5. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
PA-13 recorded a R+45.5 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $3,759,995 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#3,9921.5
LA-01Republican · R+37.9 · 18.2 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability5.5
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
LA-01 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 1.3. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 1.5 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +0.5. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-18, moving the score +0.2 to 1.5.
District
LA-01 recorded a R+37.9 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $4,011,458 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#3,9931.4
NH-01 · open seatDemocratic · D+2.0 · 7.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline0.0
Primary feasibility4.8
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Deep blue2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
NH-01 is an open seat: the incumbent has filed for the 2026 Senate race. V0.11 scores it on the structural baseline alone at 1.4 (-15.4 from v0.10).
District
NH-01 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+2.0. Incumbent cash on hand is $407.6K as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $407,584 cash on hand through 2024-12-31. The directly linked 2024 Democratic primary gives the incumbent 95.2% of retained contest votes; this changes primary feasibility without making a winner or nomination claim.
#3,9990.8
WV-S2Republican · R+41.9 · 11.6 years in Senate · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability2.9
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
WV-S2 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 0.8 with 65% of the component weight available: statewide competitiveness, incumbent cash vulnerability.
State
WV recorded a R+41.9 presidential margin statewide in 2024. The senator reported $4,377,201 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#4,0070.4
AR-04Republican · R+39.9 · 11.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability1.5
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
AR-04 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 0.4. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 0.5 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +0.1. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
AR-04 recorded a R+39.9 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $4,668,447 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#4,0180.0Tie of 1,709
LA-04Republican · R+52.1 · 9.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability0.0
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
LA-04 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 0.0. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 0.0 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +0.0. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-18, leaving the score unchanged.
District
LA-04 recorded a R+52.1 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $9,839,636 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#4,0180.0Tie of 1,709
TX-13Republican · R+47.8 · 5.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability0.0
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
TX-13 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 0.0. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 0.0 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +0.0. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
TX-13 recorded a R+47.8 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $5,410,801 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#4,0180.0Tie of 1,709
AL-S3Republican · R+30.5 · 3.6 years in Senate · next election 2028
General-election competitiveness0.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability0.0
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
AL-S3 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 0.0 with 65% of the component weight available: statewide competitiveness, incumbent cash vulnerability.
State
AL recorded a R+30.5 presidential margin statewide in 2024. The senator reported $5,235,187 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#4,0180.0Tie of 1,709
AR-S2Republican · R+30.6 · 11.6 years in Senate · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability0.0
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
AR-S2 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 0.0 with 65% of the component weight available: statewide competitiveness, incumbent cash vulnerability.
State
AR recorded a R+30.6 presidential margin statewide in 2024. The senator reported $9,931,885 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#4,0180.0Tie of 1,709
KY-S2Republican · R+30.5 · 41.5 years in Senate · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability0.0
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
KY-S2 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 0.0 with 65% of the component weight available: statewide competitiveness, incumbent cash vulnerability.
State
KY recorded a R+30.5 presidential margin statewide in 2024. The senator reported $7,341,792 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#4,0180.0Tie of 1,709
KY-S3Republican · R+30.5 · 15.6 years in Senate · next election 2028
General-election competitiveness0.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability0.0
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
KY-S3 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 0.0 with 65% of the component weight available: statewide competitiveness, incumbent cash vulnerability.
State
KY recorded a R+30.5 presidential margin statewide in 2024. The senator reported $6,744,711 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#4,0180.0Tie of 1,709
SD-S3Republican · R+29.2 · 21.6 years in Senate · next election 2028
General-election competitiveness0.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability0.0
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
SD-S3 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 0.0 with 65% of the component weight available: statewide competitiveness, incumbent cash vulnerability.
State
SD recorded a R+29.2 presidential margin statewide in 2024. The senator reported $17,713,892 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#4,0180.0Tie of 1,709
WY-S1Republican · R+45.4 · 19.1 years in Senate · next election 2030
General-election competitiveness0.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability0.0
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
WY-S1 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 0.0 with 65% of the component weight available: statewide competitiveness, incumbent cash vulnerability.
State
WY recorded a R+45.4 presidential margin statewide in 2024. The senator reported $8,408,868 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#4,0180.0Tie of 1,709
GA House 121Democratic · R+22.3 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline0.0
Primary feasibility0.0
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
GA House 121 scores 0.0 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race R+22.3 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record R+22.3 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#4,0180.0Tie of 1,709
GA House 145Democratic · D+1.0 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline0.0
Primary feasibility0.0
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
GA House 145 scores 0.0 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+1.0 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+1.0 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#4,0180.0Tie of 1,709
IN House 10Democratic · D+4.2 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline0.0
Primary feasibility0.0
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
IN House 10 scores 0.0 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+4.2 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+4.2 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#4,0180.0Tie of 1,709
IN Senate 29Democratic · D+3.4 own race · 4.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline0.0
Primary feasibility0.0
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
IN Senate 29 scores 0.0 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+3.4 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+3.4 in the 2022 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#4,0180.0Tie of 1,709
MO House 132Democratic · D+3.2 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline0.0
Primary feasibility0.0
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO House 132 scores 0.0 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+3.2 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+3.2 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#4,0180.0Tie of 1,709
MO House 136Democratic · D+2.0 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline0.0
Primary feasibility0.0
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO House 136 scores 0.0 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+2.0 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+2.0 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#4,0180.0Tie of 1,709
MO House 21Democratic · D+2.7 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline0.0
Primary feasibility0.0
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO House 21 scores 0.0 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+2.7 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+2.7 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#4,0180.0Tie of 1,709
MO House 34Democratic · D+3.6 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline0.0
Primary feasibility0.0
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO House 34 scores 0.0 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+3.6 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+3.6 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#4,0180.0Tie of 1,709
MO House 98Democratic · D+4.6 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline0.0
Primary feasibility0.0
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO House 98 scores 0.0 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+4.6 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+4.6 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#4,0180.0Tie of 1,709
TN House 67Democratic · D+0.6 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline0.0
Primary feasibility0.0
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
TN House 67 scores 0.0 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+0.6 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+0.6 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.