PRIORITY INDEX · MODEL v1.14 · PUBLISHED Sep 30, 2026 · HOUSE SOURCE CUTOFF Aug 4, 2026
Where the field bends.
430 House seats, 100 Senate seats, 50 governorships, and 5,146 state-legislative seats in 36 states, ordered by how much reason the retained evidence gives to investigate each one. A score is a research priority, not a forecast.
This view opens on seats scored on two or more inputs. 4,444 seats carry a single input and often tie; choose “Any evidence” under Evidence to include them. How the score is built
5,726seats scored1,282with two or more inputs
- Seats in this view
- 1,282
- Score range
- 86.0 – 0.0
- Three or more inputs
- 306
- Republican-held
- 747
Index rank / scoreSeat / incumbentWhat the score is made ofRoute / evidence
#3,7886.5Tie of 93
IN House 74Republican · R+37.1 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation24.5
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
IN House 74 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 6.5 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+37.1 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,7886.5Tie of 93
IN House 75Republican · R+100.0 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation24.5
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
IN House 75 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 6.5 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+100.0 in the 2024 general election, which was uncontested. That race was uncontested, so the margin is the maximum. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,7886.5Tie of 93
IN House 76Republican · R+100.0 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation24.5
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
IN House 76 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 6.5 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+100.0 in the 2024 general election, which was uncontested. That race was uncontested, so the margin is the maximum. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,7886.5Tie of 93
IN House 78Republican · R+100.0 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation24.5
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
IN House 78 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 6.5 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+100.0 in the 2024 general election, which was uncontested. That race was uncontested, so the margin is the maximum. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,7886.5Tie of 93
IN House 79Republican · R+100.0 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation24.5
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
IN House 79 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 6.5 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+100.0 in the 2024 general election, which was uncontested. That race was uncontested, so the margin is the maximum. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,7886.5Tie of 93
IN House 81Republican · R+29.7 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation24.5
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
IN House 81 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 6.5 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+29.7 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,7886.5Tie of 93
IN House 83Republican · R+28.0 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation24.5
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
IN House 83 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 6.5 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+28.0 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,7886.5Tie of 93
IN House 84Republican · R+100.0 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation24.5
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
IN House 84 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 6.5 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+100.0 in the 2024 general election, which was uncontested. That race was uncontested, so the margin is the maximum. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,7886.5Tie of 93
IN House 85Republican · R+48.8 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation24.5
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
IN House 85 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 6.5 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+48.8 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,7886.5Tie of 93
IN House 90Republican · R+27.2 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation24.5
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
IN House 90 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 6.5 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+27.2 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,7886.5Tie of 93
IN Senate 12Republican · R+100.0 own race · 4.0-year term · next election 2028
General-election competitiveness0.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation24.5
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
IN Senate 12 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 6.5 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+100.0 in the 2024 general election, which was uncontested. That race was uncontested, so the margin is the maximum. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,7886.5Tie of 93
IN Senate 13Republican · R+100.0 own race · 4.0-year term · next election 2028
General-election competitiveness0.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation24.5
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
IN Senate 13 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 6.5 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+100.0 in the 2024 general election, which was uncontested. That race was uncontested, so the margin is the maximum. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,7886.5Tie of 93
IN Senate 14Republican · R+30.3 own race · 4.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation24.5
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
IN Senate 14 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 6.5 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+30.3 in the 2022 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,7886.5Tie of 93
IN Senate 15Republican · R+100.0 own race · 4.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation24.5
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
IN Senate 15 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 6.5 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+100.0 in the 2022 general election, which was uncontested. That race was uncontested, so the margin is the maximum. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,7886.5Tie of 93
IN Senate 16Republican · R+100.0 own race · 4.0-year term · next election 2028
General-election competitiveness0.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation24.5
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
IN Senate 16 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 6.5 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+100.0 in the 2024 general election, which was uncontested. That race was uncontested, so the margin is the maximum. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,7886.5Tie of 93
IN Senate 17Republican · R+50.1 own race · 4.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation24.5
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
IN Senate 17 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 6.5 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+50.1 in the 2022 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,7886.5Tie of 93
IN Senate 18Republican · R+100.0 own race · 4.0-year term · next election 2028
General-election competitiveness0.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation24.5
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
IN Senate 18 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 6.5 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+100.0 in the 2024 general election, which was uncontested. That race was uncontested, so the margin is the maximum. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,7886.5Tie of 93
IN Senate 19Republican · R+100.0 own race · 4.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation24.5
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
IN Senate 19 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 6.5 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+100.0 in the 2022 general election, which was uncontested. That race was uncontested, so the margin is the maximum. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,7886.5Tie of 93
IN Senate 21Republican · R+27.9 own race · 4.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation24.5
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
IN Senate 21 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 6.5 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+27.9 in the 2022 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,7886.5Tie of 93
IN Senate 22Republican · R+100.0 own race · 4.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation24.5
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
IN Senate 22 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 6.5 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+100.0 in the 2022 general election, which was uncontested. That race was uncontested, so the margin is the maximum. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,7886.5Tie of 93
IN Senate 23Republican · R+27.2 own race · 4.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation24.5
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
IN Senate 23 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 6.5 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+27.2 in the 2022 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,7886.5Tie of 93
IN Senate 24Republican · R+31.1 own race · 4.0-year term · next election 2028
General-election competitiveness0.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation24.5
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
IN Senate 24 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 6.5 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+31.1 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,7886.5Tie of 93
IN Senate 25Republican · R+28.1 own race · 4.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation24.5
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
IN Senate 25 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 6.5 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+28.1 in the 2022 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,7886.5Tie of 93
IN Senate 27Republican · R+42.3 own race · 4.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation24.5
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
IN Senate 27 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 6.5 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+42.3 in the 2022 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,7886.5Tie of 93
IN Senate 28Republican · R+78.0 own race · 4.0-year term · next election 2028
General-election competitiveness0.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation24.5
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
IN Senate 28 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 6.5 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+78.0 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,7886.5Tie of 93
IN Senate 37Republican · R+51.8 own race · 4.0-year term · next election 2028
General-election competitiveness0.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation24.5
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
IN Senate 37 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 6.5 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+51.8 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,7886.5Tie of 93
IN Senate 38Republican · R+100.0 own race · 4.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation24.5
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
IN Senate 38 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 6.5 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+100.0 in the 2022 general election, which was uncontested. That race was uncontested, so the margin is the maximum. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,7886.5Tie of 93
IN Senate 39Republican · R+100.0 own race · 4.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation24.5
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
IN Senate 39 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 6.5 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+100.0 in the 2022 general election, which was uncontested. That race was uncontested, so the margin is the maximum. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,7886.5Tie of 93
IN Senate 41Republican · R+35.6 own race · 4.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation24.5
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
IN Senate 41 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 6.5 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+35.6 in the 2022 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,7886.5Tie of 93
IN Senate 42Republican · R+100.0 own race · 4.0-year term · next election 2028
General-election competitiveness0.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation24.5
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
IN Senate 42 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 6.5 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+100.0 in the 2024 general election, which was uncontested. That race was uncontested, so the margin is the maximum. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,7886.5Tie of 93
IN Senate 43Republican · R+100.0 own race · 4.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation24.5
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
IN Senate 43 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 6.5 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+100.0 in the 2022 general election, which was uncontested. That race was uncontested, so the margin is the maximum. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,7886.5Tie of 93
IN Senate 44Republican · R+100.0 own race · 4.0-year term · next election 2028
General-election competitiveness0.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation24.5
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
IN Senate 44 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 6.5 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+100.0 in the 2024 general election, which was uncontested. That race was uncontested, so the margin is the maximum. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,7886.5Tie of 93
IN Senate 47Republican · R+33.6 own race · 4.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation24.5
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
IN Senate 47 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 6.5 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+33.6 in the 2022 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,7886.5Tie of 93
IN Senate 48Republican · R+44.7 own race · 4.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation24.5
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
IN Senate 48 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 6.5 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+44.7 in the 2022 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,7886.5Tie of 93
IN Senate 49Republican · R+100.0 own race · 4.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation24.5
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
IN Senate 49 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 6.5 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+100.0 in the 2022 general election, which was uncontested. That race was uncontested, so the margin is the maximum. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,7886.5Tie of 93
IN Senate 5Republican · R+32.0 own race · 4.0-year term · next election 2028
General-election competitiveness0.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation24.5
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
IN Senate 5 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 6.5 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+32.0 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,7886.5Tie of 93
IN Senate 50Republican · R+80.7 own race · 4.0-year term · next election 2028
General-election competitiveness0.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation24.5
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
IN Senate 50 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 6.5 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+80.7 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,7886.5Tie of 93
IN Senate 6Republican · R+100.0 own race · 4.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation24.5
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
IN Senate 6 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 6.5 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+100.0 in the 2022 general election, which was uncontested. That race was uncontested, so the margin is the maximum. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,7886.5Tie of 93
IN Senate 7Republican · R+100.0 own race · 4.0-year term · next election 2028
General-election competitiveness0.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation24.5
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
IN Senate 7 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 6.5 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+100.0 in the 2024 general election, which was uncontested. That race was uncontested, so the margin is the maximum. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,7886.5Tie of 93
IN Senate 8Republican · R+43.4 own race · 4.0-year term · next election 2028
General-election competitiveness0.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation24.5
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
IN Senate 8 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 6.5 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+43.4 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,7886.5Tie of 93
IN Senate 9Republican · R+100.0 own race · 4.0-year term · next election 2028
General-election competitiveness0.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation24.5
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
IN Senate 9 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 6.5 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+100.0 in the 2024 general election, which was uncontested. That race was uncontested, so the margin is the maximum. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,8916.1
KY-02Republican · R+41.3 · 17.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability23.2
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
KY-02 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 6.1. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 7.1 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +2.0. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
KY-02 recorded a R+41.3 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $1,718,271 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#3,9015.5Tie of 4
IL-16Republican · R+22.7 · 10.9 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness9.3
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability0.0
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
IL-16 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 5.5. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 6.4 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +0.6. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
IL-16 recorded a R+22.7 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $6,748,621 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#3,9015.5Tie of 4
MI-02Republican · R+30.1 · 11.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability20.9
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MI-02 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 5.5. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 6.4 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +1.9. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-15, leaving the score unchanged.
District
MI-02 recorded a R+30.1 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $1,928,265 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#3,9124.9
NY-11Republican · R+24.4 · 5.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness2.5
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability12.8
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
NY-11 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 4.9. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 5.7 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +1.3. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
NY-11 recorded a R+24.4 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $2,767,340 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#3,9154.5Tie of 6
AR-03Republican · R+24.9 · 15.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.4
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability15.9
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
AR-03 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 4.5. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 5.2 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +1.5. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
AR-03 recorded a R+24.9 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $2,404,276 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#3,9154.5Tie of 6
ND-S1Republican · R+36.5 · 7.6 years in Senate · next election 2030
General-election competitiveness0.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability16.9
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
ND-S1 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 4.5 with 65% of the component weight available: statewide competitiveness, incumbent cash vulnerability.
State
ND recorded a R+36.5 presidential margin statewide in 2024. The senator reported $2,291,364 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#3,9294.0
TX-06Republican · R+28.5 · 5.0 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability15.2
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
TX-06 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 4.0. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 4.7 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +1.3. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
TX-06 recorded a R+28.5 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $2,483,402 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#3,9303.9
FL-26Republican · R+35.0 · 23.5 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability14.7
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
FL-26 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 4.1. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 4.8 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +1.4. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-29, moving the score -0.2 to 3.9.
District
FL-26 recorded a R+35.0 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $2,452,430 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#3,9313.8Tie of 6
AL-03Republican · R+46.7 · 23.5 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability14.3
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
AL-03 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 3.8. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 4.4 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +1.3. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
AL-03 recorded a R+46.7 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $2,590,964 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.