NC Senate 14 · MODEL v1.14 · 2 INPUTS MEASURED
NC Senate 14 scores 64.0 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+49.8 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
THE MEMBER
Dan Blue holds NC state Senate district 14 as a Democratic. The Open States roster is the identity source; the seat is next regularly contested in 2026 on a 2-year term.
ocd-person/06dca4de-5217-45fc-b78a-fc7870ae7fafTHE DISTRICT
The official state returns record D+49.8 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
SCORE ANATOMY
The official state returns record D+49.8 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The baseline is 0 at a 5-point Democratic margin and 100 at 30 points.
In the latest retained Democratic primary the holder took 85.5% of named-candidate votes; feasibility is 100 minus that share.
Not in this score
The retained alignment trackers cover Congress only, so the weight is omitted.
Not in this score
State campaign-finance filings are not retained, so the weight is omitted.
CURRENT TERM
Formula renormalized(0.65 × structural + 0.20 × alignment gap + 0.15 × cash vulnerability) × (0.6 + 0.4 × 0.65)
Source cutoff Aug 4, 2026 · How the score is built · Source ledger