TN-S2 · MODEL v1.14 · 3 INPUTS MEASURED
TN-S2 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 8.9 with 85% of the component weight available: statewide competitiveness, incumbent cash vulnerability, and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
THE MEMBER
Bill Hagerty is the Republican senator in TN Class 2. The retained roster records 5.6 cumulative years of Senate service through the source cutoff; the seat is next contested in 2026.
H000601THE STATE
TN recorded a R+29.7 presidential margin statewide in 2024. The senator reported $5,234,429 cash on hand through 2026-07-17.
SCORE ANATOMY
The statewide 2024 presidential result was R+29.7. A tied state begins at 100 and each Republican margin point subtracts four points.
Not in this score
Not applicable to this Republican-held route; no Democratic-primary value is imputed.
Not in this score
Not used in this route; the retained AIPAC model covers the Democratic House field.
Not in this score
Not used in this route because the retained alignment trackers cover the Democratic caucus.
The FEC candidate summary reports $5,234,429 cash on hand through 2026-07-17. The inverse log scale is 100 at $50,000 or less and 0 at $5 million or more.
The retained 2024 state-legislative Democratic primaries in this state score 40.3 on a scale where a 40% contested share is 100. This is state-level organizing context, not a seat measure.
SENATE TERM
Formula renormalized(0.45 × competitiveness + 0.20 × cash vulnerability + 0.15 × local context + 0.20 × state contestation) × (0.6 + 0.4 × 0.85)
Source cutoff Aug 4, 2026 · How the score is built · Source ledger · Factual seat record