OR-S2 · MODEL v1.14 · 3 INPUTS MEASURED

Jeff Merkley

OR-S2 scores 25.9 on the Democratic incumbent route with 100% of the component weight available: a D+14.3 statewide baseline, tracker alignment, and reported cash on hand. Senate primary feasibility is not measured.

Priority score25.9#2,889 of 5,726Tie of 5

THE MEMBER

Record

Jeff Merkley is the Democratic senator in OR Class 2. The retained roster records 17.6 cumulative years of Senate service through the source cutoff; the seat is next contested in 2026.

First Senate service: Jan 6, 2009
Next election: 2026
Alignment gap: 8.8
Bioguide record: M001176

THE STATE

OR-S2

OR recorded a D+14.3 presidential margin statewide in 2024. The senator reported $6,828,404 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.

2024 presidential margin: D+14.3
Cash on hand: $6,828,404
Receipts / disbursements: $4,540,974 / $1,979,569
Finance through: Jun 30, 2026
Route: Democratic incumbent route
Baseline score: 37.2

SCORE ANATOMY

What makes the score

Blue baseline

37.2

The statewide 2024 presidential result was D+14.3. The baseline is 0 at a 5-point Democratic margin and 100 at 30 points; only 2024 is retained statewide, so no multi-cycle floor applies.

Primary feasibility

Not in this score

No retained Senate primary evidence exists, so the structural baseline is the blue baseline alone. Nothing is imputed.

Incumbent alignment gap

8.8

The 119th Senate sheets of the retained Left and Palestine trackers score this member 0.929245283 and 0.8947368421. The gap is the mean distance from full alignment, scaled by tracker coverage.

Cash vulnerability

0.0

The FEC candidate summary reports $6,828,404 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. The inverse log scale is 100 at $50,000 or less and 0 at $5 million or more.

SENATE TERM

Recorded service

2021–nowOR-Class 2Current at source cutoff

Formula renormalized(0.65 × structural + 0.20 × alignment gap + 0.15 × cash vulnerability) × (0.6 + 0.4 × 1)

Source cutoff Aug 4, 2026 · How the score is built · Source ledger · Factual seat record