AZ-S3 · MODEL v1.14 · 3 INPUTS MEASURED
AZ-S3 scores 14.8 on the Democratic incumbent route with 100% of the component weight available: a R+5.5 statewide baseline, tracker alignment, and reported cash on hand. Senate primary feasibility is not measured.
THE MEMBER
Mark Kelly is the Democratic senator in AZ Class 3. The retained roster records 5.7 cumulative years of Senate service through the source cutoff; the seat is next contested in 2028.
K000377THE STATE
AZ recorded a R+5.5 presidential margin statewide in 2024. The senator reported $24,287,638 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
SCORE ANATOMY
The statewide 2024 presidential result was R+5.5. The baseline is 0 at a 5-point Democratic margin and 100 at 30 points; only 2024 is retained statewide, so no multi-cycle floor applies.
Not in this score
No retained Senate primary evidence exists, so the structural baseline is the blue baseline alone. Nothing is imputed.
The 119th Senate sheets of the retained Left and Palestine trackers score this member 0.3372703412 and 0.1812865497. The gap is the mean distance from full alignment, scaled by tracker coverage.
The FEC candidate summary reports $24,287,638 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. The inverse log scale is 100 at $50,000 or less and 0 at $5 million or more.
SENATE TERM
Formula renormalized(0.65 × structural + 0.20 × alignment gap + 0.15 × cash vulnerability) × (0.6 + 0.4 × 1)
Source cutoff Aug 4, 2026 · How the score is built · Source ledger · Factual seat record