TN-09 · MODEL v1.14 · 5 INPUTS MEASURED
TN-09 scores 62.0 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.8 replaces the inferred primary component with direct 2024 contest evidence, moving the score +2.0 to 64.0. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
THE MEMBER
Steve Cohen (born 1949) has served in the U.S. House since 2007-01-04. The retained record shows 19.6 cumulative years of House service, 19.6 in the current uninterrupted stretch, 0 district changes, and 0 material service breaks.
C001068THE DISTRICT
TN-09 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+43.4. Incumbent cash on hand is $1.8M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $1,843,018 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. The directly linked 2024 Democratic primary gives the incumbent 73.7% of retained contest votes; this changes primary feasibility without making a winner or nomination claim.
SCORE ANATOMY
District Democratic baseline contributes 100.0 points; the retained 2024 presidential margin is D+43.4.
The retained official 2024 Democratic primary reports 30,042 incumbent votes out of 40,759 contest votes (73.7%). Primary feasibility is the inverse share, 26.3. The candidate identity and CD119 district key are bound; no winner is inferred.
Retained FEC AIPAC evidence contributes 0.0 points; tracker labels are context only and are not double counted.
The retained voting trackers produce a 50.7-point alignment gap.
The FEC candidate summary snapshot (2026-06-30) reports $1,843,018 cash on hand, replacing the $1,843,018 release aggregate. The inverse log scale is 100 at $50,000 or less and 0 at $5 million or more.
HOUSE HISTORY
Formula 0.65 × structural baseline + 0.20 × incumbent alignment gap + 0.15 × cash vulnerability; v0.8 replaces inferred primary feasibility with 100 minus the directly linked 2024 incumbent vote share; v0.10 refreshes cash vulnerability from the FEC candidate summary snapshot
Source cutoff Aug 4, 2026 · How the score is built · Source ledger · Factual seat record