SD-AL · MODEL v1.14 · 3 INPUTS MEASURED
SD-AL enters through the Republican-held flip route at 7.7. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 80% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 8.4 is scaled by 0.920, moving the score +1.4. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, moving the score +6.4 to 14.1.
THE MEMBER
Dusty Johnson is the current Republican House member for SD-AL. The retained congressional history records 7.6 cumulative years of House service through the source cutoff.
J000301THE DISTRICT
SD-AL recorded a R+29.2 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $5,245,125 cash on hand through 2024-12-31. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence. Exact statewide county coverage adds turnout, registration, and demographic context without allocating split counties. The retained 2024 House Democratic candidate share ran -6.28 points versus Harris after normalizing obsolete Shannon County FIPS 46113 to current Oglala Lakota County 46102; this remains research-fallback election evidence, not an official canvass or winner claim.
SCORE ANATOMY
The retained 2024 presidential result was R+29.2. A tied district begins at 100 and each Republican margin point subtracts four points.
Not in this score
Not applicable to this Republican-held general-election route; no Democratic-primary value is imputed.
Not in this score
Not used in this route because the retained candidate-level AIPAC model covers the Democratic incumbent field.
Not in this score
Not used in this route because the retained alignment trackers cover Democratic incumbents.
The FEC candidate summary snapshot (2026-06-30) reports $1,393,104 cash on hand, replacing the $5,245,125 release aggregate. The inverse log scale is 100 at $50,000 or less and 0 at $5 million or more.
Exact at-large local context is 44.7 with all component weights present. The retained 2024 House Democratic candidate share was 27.96% versus 34.24% for Harris (-6.28 points), after the official Census 46113-to-46102 county-code normalization; this becomes a 18.6 down-ballot component. No winner is inferred.
Not in this score
No retained state-legislative Democratic primary catalog records uncontested contests for this state, so the component is omitted and the available weight is renormalized.
HOUSE HISTORY
Formula v0.9 Republican-held route: renormalized 0.45 × competitiveness + 0.20 × cash vulnerability + 0.15 × local context + 0.20 × state Democratic primary contestation (80% of component weight available) × 0.920 coverage multiplier; the former flat 0.70 cap is removed; v0.10 refreshes cash vulnerability from the FEC candidate summary snapshot
Source cutoff Aug 4, 2026 · How the score is built · Source ledger · Factual seat record