NH-01 · OPEN SEAT · MODEL v1.14 · 2 INPUTS MEASURED

Chris Pappas

NH-01 is an open seat: the incumbent has filed for the 2026 Senate race. V0.11 scores it on the structural baseline alone at 1.4 (-15.4 from v0.10).

Priority score1.4#3,993 of 5,726

THE MEMBER

Record

Chris Pappas (born 1980) has served in the U.S. House since 2019-01-03. The retained record shows 7.6 cumulative years of House service, 7.6 in the current uninterrupted stretch, 0 district changes, and 0 material service breaks.

First House service: Jan 3, 2019
District changes: 0
Alignment gap: Not in this score
Bioguide record: P000614

THE DISTRICT

NH-01

NH-01 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+2.0. Incumbent cash on hand is $407.6K as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $407,584 cash on hand through 2024-12-31. The directly linked 2024 Democratic primary gives the incumbent 95.2% of retained contest votes; this changes primary feasibility without making a winner or nomination claim.

2024 presidential margin: D+2.0
Cash on hand: $4,251,918
Receipts / disbursements: $15,384,657 / $11,540,323
Finance through: Aug 19, 2026
Route: Deep blue
Baseline score: 1.4

SCORE ANATOMY

What makes the score

Blue baseline

0.0

District Democratic baseline contributes 0.0 points; the retained 2024 presidential margin is D+2.0.

Primary feasibility

4.8

The retained official 2024 Democratic primary reports 54,927 incumbent votes out of 57,710 contest votes (95.2%). Primary feasibility is the inverse share, 4.8. The candidate identity and CD119 district key are bound; no winner is inferred.

AIPAC support

Not in this score

AIPAC component is unavailable for this seat; the fallback route does not replace it with zero.

Incumbent alignment gap

Not in this score

Incumbent alignment gap is omitted: the FEC candidate master records the incumbent as a 2026 Senate candidate (S6NH00141), so this is an open House seat and the departing incumbent's incumbent alignment gap is not a vulnerability signal. The remaining weights are renormalized.

Cash vulnerability

Not in this score

Cash vulnerability is omitted: the FEC candidate master records the incumbent as a 2026 Senate candidate (S6NH00141), so this is an open House seat and the departing incumbent's cash vulnerability is not a vulnerability signal. The remaining weights are renormalized.

HOUSE HISTORY

Recorded service

2019–2021NH-01Completed term

2021–2023NH-01Completed term

2023–2025NH-01Completed term

2025–nowNH-01Current at source cutoff

Formula 0.65 × structural baseline + 0.20 × incumbent alignment gap + 0.15 × cash vulnerability; v0.8 replaces inferred primary feasibility with 100 minus the directly linked 2024 incumbent vote share; v0.10 refreshes cash vulnerability from the FEC candidate summary snapshot; v0.11 open seat: incumbent_alignment_gap and cash_vulnerability omitted and weights renormalized

Source cutoff Aug 4, 2026 · How the score is built · Source ledger · Factual seat record