PRIORITY INDEX · MODEL v1.14 · PUBLISHED Sep 30, 2026 · HOUSE SOURCE CUTOFF Aug 4, 2026
Where the field bends.
430 House seats, 100 Senate seats, 50 governorships, and 5,146 state-legislative seats in 36 states, ordered by how much reason the retained evidence gives to investigate each one. A score is a research priority, not a forecast.
This view opens on seats scored on two or more inputs. 4,444 seats carry a single input and often tie; choose “Any evidence” under Evidence to include them. How the score is built
5,726seats scored1,282with two or more inputs
- Seats in this view
- 1,282
- Score range
- 86.0 – 0.0
- Three or more inputs
- 306
- Republican-held
- 747
Index rank / scoreSeat / incumbentWhat the score is made ofRoute / evidence
#3,6338.4Tie of 106
MO House 49Republican · R+45.4 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation32.0
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO House 49 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 8.4 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+45.4 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,6338.4Tie of 106
MO House 5Republican · R+100.0 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation32.0
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO House 5 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 8.4 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+100.0 in the 2024 general election, which was uncontested. That race was uncontested, so the margin is the maximum. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,6338.4Tie of 106
MO House 51Republican · R+47.8 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation32.0
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO House 51 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 8.4 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+47.8 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,6338.4Tie of 106
MO House 52Republican · R+48.6 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation32.0
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO House 52 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 8.4 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+48.6 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,6338.4Tie of 106
MO House 53Republican · R+45.8 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation32.0
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO House 53 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 8.4 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+45.8 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,6338.4Tie of 106
MO House 54Republican · R+40.6 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation32.0
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO House 54 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 8.4 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+40.6 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,6338.4Tie of 106
MO House 55Republican · R+100.0 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation32.0
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO House 55 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 8.4 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+100.0 in the 2024 general election, which was uncontested. That race was uncontested, so the margin is the maximum. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,6338.4Tie of 106
MO House 57Republican · R+62.4 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation32.0
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO House 57 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 8.4 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+62.4 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,6338.4Tie of 106
MO House 58Republican · R+100.0 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation32.0
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO House 58 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 8.4 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+100.0 in the 2024 general election, which was uncontested. That race was uncontested, so the margin is the maximum. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,6338.4Tie of 106
MO House 59Republican · R+100.0 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation32.0
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO House 59 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 8.4 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+100.0 in the 2024 general election, which was uncontested. That race was uncontested, so the margin is the maximum. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,6338.4Tie of 106
MO House 6Republican · R+57.0 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation32.0
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO House 6 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 8.4 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+57.0 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,6338.4Tie of 106
MO House 60Republican · R+25.1 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation32.0
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO House 60 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 8.4 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+25.1 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,6338.4Tie of 106
MO House 61Republican · R+100.0 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation32.0
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO House 61 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 8.4 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+100.0 in the 2024 general election, which was uncontested. That race was uncontested, so the margin is the maximum. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,6338.4Tie of 106
MO House 62Republican · R+100.0 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation32.0
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO House 62 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 8.4 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+100.0 in the 2024 general election, which was uncontested. That race was uncontested, so the margin is the maximum. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,6338.4Tie of 106
MO House 63Republican · R+30.9 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation32.0
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO House 63 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 8.4 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+30.9 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,6338.4Tie of 106
MO House 64Republican · R+99.7 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation32.0
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO House 64 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 8.4 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+99.7 in the 2024 general election, which was uncontested. That race was uncontested, so the margin is the maximum. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,6338.4Tie of 106
MO House 65Republican · R+100.0 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation32.0
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO House 65 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 8.4 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+100.0 in the 2024 general election, which was uncontested. That race was uncontested, so the margin is the maximum. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,6338.4Tie of 106
MO House 7Republican · R+62.7 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation32.0
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO House 7 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 8.4 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+62.7 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,6338.4Tie of 106
MO House 8Republican · R+37.2 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation32.0
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO House 8 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 8.4 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+37.2 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,6338.4Tie of 106
MO House 9Republican · R+100.0 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation32.0
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO House 9 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 8.4 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+100.0 in the 2024 general election, which was uncontested. That race was uncontested, so the margin is the maximum. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,6338.4Tie of 106
MO House 97Republican · R+29.0 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation32.0
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO House 97 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 8.4 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+29.0 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,6338.4Tie of 106
MO Senate 12Republican · R+61.5 own race · 4.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation32.0
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO Senate 12 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 8.4 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+61.5 in the 2022 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,6338.4Tie of 106
MO Senate 16Republican · R+61.3 own race · 4.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation32.0
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO Senate 16 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 8.4 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+61.3 in the 2022 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,6338.4Tie of 106
MO Senate 18Republican · R+51.6 own race · 4.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation32.0
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO Senate 18 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 8.4 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+51.6 in the 2022 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,6338.4Tie of 106
MO Senate 2Republican · R+26.0 own race · 4.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation32.0
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO Senate 2 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 8.4 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+26.0 in the 2022 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,6338.4Tie of 106
MO Senate 20Republican · R+100.0 own race · 4.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation32.0
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO Senate 20 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 8.4 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+100.0 in the 2022 general election, which was uncontested. That race was uncontested, so the margin is the maximum. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,6338.4Tie of 106
MO Senate 21Republican · R+38.6 own race · 4.0-year term · next election 2028
General-election competitiveness0.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation32.0
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO Senate 21 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 8.4 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+38.6 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,6338.4Tie of 106
MO Senate 22Republican · R+31.0 own race · 4.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation32.0
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO Senate 22 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 8.4 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+31.0 in the 2022 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,6338.4Tie of 106
MO Senate 25Republican · R+67.3 own race · 4.0-year term · next election 2028
General-election competitiveness0.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation32.0
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO Senate 25 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 8.4 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+67.3 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,6338.4Tie of 106
MO Senate 26Republican · R+47.8 own race · 4.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation32.0
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO Senate 26 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 8.4 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+47.8 in the 2022 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,6338.4Tie of 106
MO Senate 27Republican · R+100.0 own race · 4.0-year term · next election 2028
General-election competitiveness0.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation32.0
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO Senate 27 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 8.4 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+100.0 in the 2024 general election, which was uncontested. That race was uncontested, so the margin is the maximum. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,6338.4Tie of 106
MO Senate 28Republican · R+100.0 own race · 4.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation32.0
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO Senate 28 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 8.4 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+100.0 in the 2022 general election, which was uncontested. That race was uncontested, so the margin is the maximum. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,6338.4Tie of 106
MO Senate 29Republican · R+60.2 own race · 4.0-year term · next election 2028
General-election competitiveness0.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation32.0
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO Senate 29 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 8.4 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+60.2 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,6338.4Tie of 106
MO Senate 3Republican · R+51.7 own race · 4.0-year term · next election 2028
General-election competitiveness0.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation32.0
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO Senate 3 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 8.4 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+51.7 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,6338.4Tie of 106
MO Senate 31Republican · R+37.0 own race · 4.0-year term · next election 2028
General-election competitiveness0.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation32.0
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO Senate 31 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 8.4 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+37.0 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,6338.4Tie of 106
MO Senate 32Republican · R+100.0 own race · 4.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation32.0
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO Senate 32 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 8.4 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+100.0 in the 2022 general election, which was uncontested. That race was uncontested, so the margin is the maximum. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,6338.4Tie of 106
MO Senate 33Republican · R+100.0 own race · 4.0-year term · next election 2028
General-election competitiveness0.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation32.0
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO Senate 33 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 8.4 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+100.0 in the 2024 general election, which was uncontested. That race was uncontested, so the margin is the maximum. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,6338.4Tie of 106
MO Senate 6Republican · R+100.0 own race · 4.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation32.0
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO Senate 6 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 8.4 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+100.0 in the 2022 general election, which was uncontested. That race was uncontested, so the margin is the maximum. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,7398.3Tie of 2
FL-06Republican · R+30.1 · 1.3 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability31.2
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
FL-06 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 8.4. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 9.8 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +2.8. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-29, moving the score -0.1 to 8.3.
District
FL-06 recorded a R+30.1 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $1,148,821 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#3,7418.2
IN House 93Republican · R+24.3 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness2.8
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation24.5
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
IN House 93 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 8.2 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+24.3 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,7477.7Tie of 2
TX-05Republican · R+27.1 · 7.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability28.8
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
TX-05 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 7.7. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 8.9 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +2.7. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
TX-05 recorded a R+27.1 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $1,329,417 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#3,7477.7Tie of 2
TN House 50Democratic · D+8.2 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline12.8
Primary feasibility0.0
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
TN House 50 scores 7.7 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+8.2 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+8.2 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,7497.6Tie of 4
FL-17Republican · R+23.9 · 7.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness4.2
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability19.0
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
FL-17 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 7.3. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 8.5 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +1.9. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-29, moving the score +0.3 to 7.6.
District
FL-17 recorded a R+23.9 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $2,166,212 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#3,7557.4Tie of 2
AR-S3Republican · R+30.6 · 15.6 years in Senate · next election 2028
General-election competitiveness0.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability28.1
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
AR-S3 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 7.4 with 65% of the component weight available: statewide competitiveness, incumbent cash vulnerability.
State
AR recorded a R+30.6 presidential margin statewide in 2024. The senator reported $1,371,011 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#3,7557.4Tie of 2
LA-S2Republican · R+22.0 · 11.6 years in Senate · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness12.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability0.8
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
LA-S2 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 7.4 with 65% of the component weight available: statewide competitiveness, incumbent cash vulnerability.
State
LA recorded a R+22.0 presidential margin statewide in 2024. The senator reported $4,827,334 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#3,7577.2Tie of 11
AL-05Republican · R+29.1 · 3.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability27.3
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
AL-05 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 7.2. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 8.4 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +2.4. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
AL-05 recorded a R+29.1 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $1,424,334 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#3,7577.2Tie of 11
OR-02Republican · R+27.1 · 5.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability27.3
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
OR-02 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 7.2. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 8.4 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +2.4. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
OR-02 recorded a R+27.1 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $1,420,775 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#3,7687.1Tie of 2
MO-08Republican · R+54.1 · 13.2 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability0.0
State Democratic primary contestation32.0
Republican-held flip3 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO-08 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 7.1. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 85% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 7.5 is scaled by 0.940, moving the score +7.1. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-15, leaving the score unchanged.
District
MO-08 recorded a R+54.1 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $5,155,711 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#3,7687.1Tie of 2
LA-S3Republican · R+22.0 · 9.6 years in Senate · next election 2028
General-election competitiveness12.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability0.0
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
LA-S3 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 7.1 with 65% of the component weight available: statewide competitiveness, incumbent cash vulnerability.
State
LA recorded a R+22.0 presidential margin statewide in 2024. The senator reported $18,589,497 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#3,7766.8
MI-09Republican · R+32.3 · 5.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability25.6
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MI-09 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 7.1. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 8.2 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +2.5. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-15, moving the score -0.3 to 6.8.
District
MI-09 recorded a R+32.3 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $1,476,336 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.